NBA Player Prop Bets: Knuck if You Buck

Following completely different outcomes in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, Game 3 tonight comes with a few questions but several certainties as well. As we dissect the rotations Atlanta and Milwaukee have deployed and the matchup advantages and disadvantages that these lineups present, we find some nice value in today’s slate. This matchup features a point total of 224.0 that favors Milwaukee by 4.5 points. Don’t forget to utilize 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool when locking in your picks! Now let’s skip the small talk, it's time to talk numbers.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (June 27, 2021)

P.J. Tucker Over 5.5 Rebounds (117)

Mike Budenholzer has chosen none other than a 36-year-old vocal veteran, Anthony Leon Tucker Jr., to be his 2021 Playoff savior. After averaging the same amount of rebound chances in the last two games as Giannis Antetokounmpo (16.5), the former MVP’s prop lands at 13.5 rebounds, while Tucker is designated only 5.5 at plus money. As my favorite prop of the night, let’s look at what makes this an easy bet.

One thing you can guarantee so far this playoff is PJ Tucker hustling all over the court for every minute he gets and this has helped him gain more trust from Coach Budenholzer. Seeing an average of 31.0 minutes per game since being added to the Bucks starting lineup back in early June has allowed Tucker to raise his average rebounds to 4.8 in those nine contests.

A majority of this production has come on the offensive glass lately with 16 offensive boards in the last six games. Atlanta has chosen to put Trae Young on PJ Tucker for more minutes than anyone else. This is partially due to Tucker spending a lot of his offensive time in the corner, but it's led to a mismatch on the glass when he crashes for second chances. PJ’s main influence may appear to be his defensive flexibility and toughness but I think his biggest impact this series has come from creating these additional offensive opportunities by chasing down offensive misses and kicking out to open shooters. This has correlated to seven rebounds in each game this series as well as assists totals of three and two for Game Two and One, respectively.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.17 units.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 27, 2021)

Bobby Portis Jr. Over 6.5 Points (-116)

Getting inside of Mike Budenholzer’s coaching mind (or even just his rotations) can be difficult, to say the least. In the case of Bobby Portis Jr., you have a Sixth Man of the Year candidate who received three DNPs during the Brooklyn Nets series but has been a pivotal piece in the first two games of the Atlanta Hawks series. I understand this point prop getting set low, given the uncertainty of Budenholzer’s lineups, but 6.5 points feels like a steal for the over.

Through the playoffs, Portis Jr. has averaged 7.4 points per game and actually has seen an increase in playing timeㅡ17.6 minutes per game on the road versus 15.1 minutes at homeㅡand this has led to higher point production in road contests, scoring 8.0 points per game versus the 7.0 points he scores at home. With his minutes steadily increasing, he’s shot more attempts in the last two games than he did over any other games over the month of June. In the first two games of the series, Portis Jr. has produced point totals of 11 and 8, respectively, both good enough to secure the bag on this over.

Risk: 1.16 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Jrue Holiday Over 28.5 Points + Assists (-108)

Jrue Holiday has been a matchup nightmare offensively for the Atlanta Hawks to start this series. For the series, Holiday is averaging 27.5 points and 8.5 assists on shooting splits of 59.0/50.0/33.3. While those free throw numbers leave room for improvement, he’s been extremely effective from the field and has initiated a ton of offense for Milwaukee as a penetrator, distributor and shooter.

So far, for the Hawks, a hobbled Bogdan Bogdanovic has been their best defensive option, holding Holiday to two makes on nine attempts and 0-of-4 from deep. The other defenders have had much less success, surrendering 21 makes on 30 attempts and 8-of-12 from beyond the arc. While Bogdanovic did look more comfortable offensively last game, he still appeared bothered by his ailing knee so I don’t suspect Atlanta is banking on him slowing down Holiday for extended minutes. Holiday was able to surpass this Points + Assists (PA) prop with just his points in Game 1 and could have possibly done the same in Game 2 if his minutes weren’t dialed back due to a 34-point blowout. After posting PA totals of 43 in Game 1 and 29 in Game 2, I predict continued success for the unanimous “most underrated” player in the Association tonight.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

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