Week 4 PrizePicks Prop Picks
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
New at 4for4: The PrizePicks Prop Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 3 PrizePicks Record: 4-3
Season Record: 14-11
One pick that failed immediately was James White’s over on receiving yards. Hopefully White comes back in 2022 and that his recovery from a hip subluxation is quick. Javonte Williams saw four targets in Week 3, double his season total in a game where he did not need to catch the ball. Joe Burrow’s game script was ripe for passing but he was efficient in throwing three touchdowns. Right size, wrong shape on the losses last week.
Week 4 Picks
Jameis Winston Over 185.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 222.9
At some point, Jameis Winston has to throw the ball down the field, right? Part of the issue is Taysom Hill, but the larger issue is the lack of chemistry with his pass-catchers. A home date against the New York Giants cures almost all. The Giants are 26th in schedule-adjusted points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks and 31st to wide receivers. Add in Alvin Kamara’s receiving floor and Winston has a positive matchup and some room to throw.
Deonte Harris Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 42.7
As a tie-in to my Winston pick, I present Deonte Harris. He has topped this specific PrizePick prop twice in three weeks with the exception being against the much-improved Carolina Panthers defense that shut down every Saint skill player. Harris is the only Saints starting receiver with 25% of the target share and is one of two receivers (min. two games) with an aDOT of 18 or higher.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 54.2
This is the “smash spot” based on our projections as Cordarrelle Patterson is the only player projected to double his receiving prop. Outside of Week 1, where the Falcons had no idea what to do on offense, Patterson topped 58 yards receiving in each game. He is third on the Falcons in targets per game. Opposing offenses have moved the ball at will against the Washington defense and even if the Falcons stumble, the Football Team defense has played the second-most snaps. The movable object will allow Atlanta to not be the stoppable force more often than not.
Damien Harris Under 9.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 7.8
The loss of James White makes this prop a bit dangerous but the Patriots have every right to get J.J. Taylor more involved as the passing-down back. The New Orleans Saints were in control of their Week 3 win over the Patriots and Damien Harris only had two catches for –3 yards, without James White available.
Ryan Tannehill Over 12.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 19.0
Another prop that the player has topped each week of the NFL season. Ryan Tannehill will see a lot of loaded boxes with Derrick Henry behind him and with the possibility of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones missing Week 4. The New York Jets are a run funnel defense that may have the opportunity to just focus on stopping the run. Tannehill can/will run in close and negative blowout game scripts. Unless a tight end decides to show up as an in-between-the-hash-marks passing option, Tannehill’s legs will represent those throws.
Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 80.3
Speaking of run funnel defenses, the Dolphins rank 31st in aFPA against running backs and are top-10 against every other position. Carson Wentz still has two sprained ankles (my mind is still blown) and would benefit from a Jonathan Taylor game. The Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to top 80 yards each week.
Kyler Murray Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 24.8
To top this prop, Kyler Murray would have to rush for over half the yards he has through three games (70) and do something he has not done against the Rams in four games—top 30 yards rushing. This is a historical under against a defensive front that has not changed enough the past two seasons to ignore past results.
