Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

Nov 24, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 12 riding an all-time heater. Week 11 was one of the best in the model's young history, and we're feeling confident it's parsing through the historical data as effectively as ever as we round the corner to the end of the fantasy regular season. There are a ton of intriguing breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 11 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 11	XFP-Diff.
Darnell Mooney	CHI	WR	13.7	20.6	6.9
Davante Adams	GB	WR	13.2	27	13.8
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR	12.6	16.6	4
Darren Waller	LV	TE	12.3	15.1	2.8
Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	11.5	19.6	8.1
A.J. Green	ARI	WR	9.1	9.8	0.7
Jamison Crowder	NYJ	WR	9	13.4	4.4
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	8.8	8.3	-0.5
D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	8.3	13.5	5.2
Adam Trautman	NO	TE	7	14.3	7.3
T.J. Hockenson	DET	TE	7	8.1	1.1
Zach Ertz	ARI	TE	6.2	24.8	18.6

Week 11 was a superb week for the model. We saw Davante Adams quickly break out of his slump, catching seven of his eight targets for 115 yards and two scores against the Vikings. Darnell Mooney was peppered with targets by backup quarterback Andy Dalton, and Zach Ertz was heavily targeted by the Cardinals’ Colt McCoy en route to the two other 20-plus fantasy point performances from last week’s cohort. On average, the Week 11 model players scored 99.5% of their expected fantasy points. Maybe most exciting, Cam Newton’s first start for the Panthers led to a fantastic game from star wideout D.J. Moore, though he got there via touchdowns, as he saw just seven targets and had under 60 yards receiving in the loss to Washington.

Misses

Week 11 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 11	XFP-Diff.
Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	16.5	13.5	-3
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	13.3	2.5	-10.8
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	12.9	11.5	-1.4
Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	12.2	7.5	-4.7
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	11.8	4.4	-7.4
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	11.5	1.7	-9.8
Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	WR	10.9	4.1	-6.8
Marvin Jones	JAX	WR	10.7	7.2	-3.5
Zach Pascal	IND	WR	10.4	0.9	-9.5
Zay Jones	LV	WR	9.8	2.5	-7.3
T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	8.7	3.6	-5.1
Keelan Cole	NYJ	WR	8.3	0	-8.3
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	6.1	0	-6.1

Tee Higgins scored 10.8 fantasy points below expectation, a back-breaker for those who saw him as a solid cash game play last weekend. Tyler Lockett had a reasonable 13.5 fantasy points, but that number still falls well short of his 16.5 expected fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. In that same game, Zay Jones was nearly non-existent in the Raiders’ disappointing loss to the Bengals. And while Jonathan Taylor’s all-time great performance in Week 11 was exciting for his fantasy managers, his scoring came at the expense of the passing attack, as all three of Zach Pascal, T.Y. Hilton, and Mo Alie-Cox failed to meet expectations, scoring a combined 20.7 points below expectation.