Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Broncos at Chiefs

The Denver Broncos travel to Kansas City and take on the Chiefs who are undefeated off bye weeks with Patrick Mahomes under center.

Strategy is the biggest part of showdown slates, and for this game with a big spread, an onslaught of Chiefs will be the way to construct your builds. In large-field tournaments finding uniqueness is by leaving salary on the table or playing the less obvious superstar position. The Broncos will be without starting running back Melvin Gordon but are gaining starting tackle Garrett Bolles. The Chiefs are going to be without starting cornerback Rashard Fenton, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with an illness.

Weather

Weather won't have a significant impact on this game.

Vegas Lines

Over/Under: 48

Broncos Implied Total: 19

Chiefs Implied Total: 29

Denver Broncos

Passing Offense

Teddy Bridgewater has an average target depth of 8.5 yards which is top 15 in the NFL, averages 7.4 yards per attempt, and has 15 passing touchdowns on the season. The Chiefs defense has given up the eighth-most yards per attempt on the season, but in the last four weeks have held each team under 250 yards passing while winning each game, holding teams to 6.17 yards per attempt. The addition of Melvin Ingram has forced Chris Jones to play more defensive tackle, leading to a significant increase in pressures.

As for the Broncos pass catchers, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant all run routes on over 70% of dropbacks. The Chiefs don't have a primary coverage, but I expect Cover 1 to begin the game so they can stop the run, and then as they gain the lead, we will see more Cover 2 and Cover 3. Against a Cover 1, the Broncos will focus on Patrick and Sutton, who have 14 receptions for over 200 yards and a touchdown against this defense. Against Cover 2, nobody has over 100 yards on this Broncos team, and against Cover 3, Jeudy is the most targeted player per route run. Last season without Sutton, Patrick managed 44 yards in both games against the Chiefs while scoring two touchdowns. Looking at the deep routes, Sutton and Patrick are ahead of Jeudy and the Chiefs have given up the sixth-most yards on deep passes this year. The Chiefs have given up the most games of over 50 yards to tight ends, and for lineup construction, I will be looking to get one of the deep shot wide receivers to pair with either Fant or Jeudy.

Rushing Offense

Javonte Williams will have all the hype this weekend, and rightfully so with how many highlights he has made this season. The problem this weekend is the matchup—they are 9-point underdogs and the Chiefs haven't given up a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 4. Every running back that has scored over 10 points against the Chiefs since Week 8 has had half of their production come from catches. The good news is that Williams has been the lead back in receiving work, but we have not seen him in this full-time role yet. Boone is primed to be the backup right now, but if they promote Crockett, I would prefer to deploy him on DraftKings in tournaments. The Chiefs do give up one of the highest yards per carry on the year, but unless the game script is on their side, I do not see Williams having the chance to carry the ball over 20 times.

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Offense

The Broncos play more Cover 1 than any team in the NFL, but teams play the least amount of Cover 1 against the Chiefs. Hill and Kelce have been targeted at over a 30% rate against a Cover 1. This offense has been consistent with their routes run over the last two weeks with Byron Pringle as the team's number three wide receiver—he has run a route on 65% of dropbacks in two straight weeks, and Mecole Hardman has completely lost that spot. The problem is that most of the targets go to two primary players, with Hill and Kelce seeing over 50% of the targets in six games this season. The Broncos have only given up one touchdown to tight ends with 11 to wide receivers. The focus for the Chiefs will be between Hill and Kelce while the rest of the team will have maybe one player see five targets.

Rushing Offense

The Broncos have given up 4.41 yards per carry, and if the Chiefs want to get them into a Cover 1, it will be by running the ball. If Edwards-Helaire is playing, I expect him to see around the 15 touches. He is averaging over five yards a carry in the games that he has finished and has two 100-yard rushing games. In three of the five losses for the Broncos, they have given up a 20-point game to the running back position, and in their other two, they faced Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

Game Flow Prediction

The Chiefs should be able to contain Williams early on, which allows the offense to mix things up with the run and force the Broncos to go into their Cover 1. Once they do, Hill and Kelce can start to reel off the chunk plays and the Chiefs take an early lead in this game. In that case, Mahomes spreads the ball around, and it ends up with multiple Chiefs scoring as they could end up having a rushing touchdown and some drives leading to field goals. For the Broncos, Tim Patrick does most of his work later in the game when it is more out of reach and could be the highest-scoring player on the slate. Below are all the players to consider.

Superstar Picks

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs $35

Mahomes has had an up-and-down season, but he has seven passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in three career games coming off the bye. He has yet to throw for under 300 yards against the Broncos when playing at home but with a 28 implied total, I have some interest here. For large-field tournaments, I think there is a spot where fading Mahomes is an easy way to get unique.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs $33

Tyreek Hill has seen 10 targets in four straight games, and if this Broncos team deploys the Cover 1 often, he will be able to break the slate. The concern I have for Hill is that he hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 4 but has led the team in deep targets, and the Broncos have given up the big play to some speedy wide receivers this season. Marquise Brown and Henry Ruggs had over 90 yards and a touchdown on only five targets against Denver.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs $27

Kelce has had eight targets in three straight games, over 60 yards in each contest, and has given the Broncos issues with over 130 yards in both games at home. I do not mind playing Hill and Kelce in the same lineups because of the high volume they both receive.

Tim Patrick, Broncos $16

Since Jeudy returned from injury, Patrick has been the second wide receiver in targets and, on the season, has led this team in receiving touchdowns. His low salary makes it affordable to get Teddy Bridgewater and the elite players on the Chiefs.

Flex Plays

Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos $27

The Broncos are not implied for many points, but with Bridgewater's skill position players, I believe he can throw multiple touchdowns against the Chiefs and end up on the winning lineup. Bridgewater has 15 passing touchdowns on the year and threw for over 300 yards against the Chiefs last season as a Carolina Panther.

Javonte Williams, Broncos $21

Williams will receive the workload while the game isn't far out of reach, but if the Chiefs get the lead early on, it won't be there to pay off the salary tag. Williams will be popular in tournaments, and I will be looking to get away from him.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos $14

The Broncos do not pass the ball a ton in the games they win, but in the losses this year, Bridgewater has thrown the ball over 30 times in each game. Sutton has not been heavily targeted in recent weeks, but he can make down-the-field plays against the Chiefs defense.

Darrel Williams, Chiefs $13

Williams is an affordable option that has shown usage for this offense when Edwards-Helaire is at full strength and with him being sick, I could see him getting a higher snap count in relief.

Chiefs, $13

The Broncos have an implied total of 18 points this week, and the Chiefs have forced a turnover in six straight games. The Chiefs also had five sacks last weekend against the Cowboys, and Bridgewater has seen the fifth-most pressures in the NFL this season.

Byron Pringle, Chiefs $12

Pringle will be one of the highest-rostered low-salary options on this slate. This season, Pringle has scored a touchdown in three primetime slates and is now the number three wide receiver in this offense.