Week 14 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
This week’s slate features a slew of favorites where the public is more divided than usual. With two games off the table due to the final bye week, we still have plenty to choose from.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 14, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 13 Recap
Ring the bell, as my picks went a perfect 5-0 last week with the Rams, Chiefs, Colts, Buccaneers and Eagles all winning their respective contests. That makes my full-season total 43-22 for this column. Onto Week 14, where hopefully we continue to succeed in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Favorite Favorites
Green Bay Packers vs. Bears
With the largest spread of the week currently set at 12.5 points, the Packers feature 85% win odds via Vegas in this one, with 96% of the public also on board.
Sometimes you have to take the easy road and this week it leads to the Packers at home in Lambeau Field.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Giants
The Giants are an absolute mess offensively, and the Chargers are loaded with weapons. It really doesn’t matter who is calling the plays or is under center this week for the Giants. L.A. is a 10.5-point favorite with 84% odds to win by TeamRankings.
Public bettors are picking the Chargers 97% of the time so you will win or lose with your pool.
Sensibly-Priced Favorite
Seattle Seahawks @ Texans
Seattle is a 7.5-point favorite in this contest, yet only 88% of the public is selecting them, which is significantly lower than other picks with similar spreads like the Titans (98%) and Broncos (95%).
The Seahawks returned to form last week with Russell Wilson leading the charge, while Houston was shut out by the Colts.
Value Favorite
Dallas Cowboys @ Football Team
The Cowboys are favored by four points in this NFC East showdown, but not many folks seem to have faith in them this week. Only 66% of public bettors are taking Dallas, so there is value there if they do win the matchup.
Dak Prescott and his offense have been inconsistent, but they do boast the weaponry to be explosive. The QB is 7-1 in his career against Washington and this version of the football team ranks 31st in QB schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA).
Upset Gamble
Atlanta Falcons @ Panthers
The Falcons are 2.5-point underdogs on the road in this divisional matchup, with 47% win odds via TeamRankings. This contest could really go either way, but considering the Panthers fired their OC and are down their best player, I lean towards Atlanta with a rejuvenated Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts against Carolina’s weakened secondary.
Survivor Picks for Week 14
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 14 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Green Bay Packers vs. Bears (85%, 12.5-point favorites)
- L.A. Chargers vs. Giants (81%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jaguars (79%, 8.5-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders (79%, 9.5-point favorites)
- Denver Broncos vs. Lions (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 14 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- L.A. Chargers vs. Giants (25%)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jaguars (18%)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Bears (17%)
- New Orleans Saints @ Jets (11%)
- Denver Broncos vs. Lions (10%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 14, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.4)
- Buffalo Bills (3.6)
- Arizona Cardinals (2.7)
- Dallas Cowboys (2.1)
- Kansas City Chiefs (1.6)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
Get Customized Picks For Your Pool: Pick'em | Survivor
TeamRankings has released a book on Survivor Pool Strategy, check out the e-version by clicking here.
