4for4 Betting Recap: Week 14
Welcome to the 4for4 football betting recap. My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter, TJ Calkins and Dalton Kates. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win 1 unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than one unit.
With that being said, let's look at Week 14!
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The year-to-date records will include it. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 14: 11-6, 64.71%, 5.68 units
YTD: 137-118-1 53.52%, 22.10 units
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan is back in profit territory after a five-week losing streak. This was Ryan’s second-best week in terms of win percentage and fourth-best week in terms of units.
Ryan continues to do well in WR props and team totals:
- WR Props: 40-28 (58.82%), +9.78 units.
- Team Totals: 23-10 (69.70%), +11.25 units.
His worse category is game totals, where he's 1-10 for the year.
Looking at overs versus unders, Ryan’s best category is WR overs because he bets a lot of overs. When looking at his best category, regardless of sample size, he is 12-5 on TE overs. Ryan hasn’t bet a TE under yet this year.
Connor Allen
Week 14: 6-7, 46.15%, -0.30 units
YTD: 126-101, 55.51%, 28.41 units
Dan’s Analysis: Unfortunately, Connor’s 10-week profit streak comes to an end as James Conner didn't get the job done. James Connor went under rushing yards while over receiving yards and rushing + receiving yards. I personally don’t take anything away from Connor because I had a really tough time believing he would profit every week.
Connor’s two best prop categories—QB and WR—roll on:
- QB Props: 24-17 (58.54%), +9.47 units.
- WR Props: 51-31 (62.20%), +19.12 units.
When you dive further, Connor is 63-47 (58.88%) for 15.45 units on overs, while his unders are 58-47 (55.24%) for 3.56 units. His best category in terms of win percentage is QB overs, where he has gone 9-1 so far this season. However, when you increase his sample size to 15 plays, his best record is WR overs (23-11/67.65%).
Sam Hoppen
Week 14: 3-2, 60%, 1.65 unit
YTD: 35-28, 55.56%, 14.88 units
Dan’s Analysis: After going 0-4 last week, Sam had a nice bounce back this week with one of his losses being a long shot. A lot of Sam’s positional breakdowns all are about even in terms of win percentage, but Sam is 21-15 overall on overs this season and his unders are 13-12. Sam did give it out three season-long plays, two of which look good but one that is for sure dead (Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns).
Greg Smith
Week 14: 3-3, 50%, 0.31 units
YTD: 63-56-1, 52.50%, 5.30 units
Dan’s Analysis: Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings, but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow the Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.
Another light week for Greg. Keep in mind Greg might be just above the break-even point, 52.38%, (assuming lines are mostly -110), but those losses include some that were only risked to win half units. Greg continues to do very well betting against the spread (ATS). He currently sits at 31-24 ATS (56.36%) for a nice return of investment of 10.98%. Greg’s weak area is totals, but particularly overs, where he sits at 8-12.
Dalton Kates
Week 14: 1.95 units
YTD: 13.48 units
Dan’s Analysis: Dalton is the Weekend Specialist at 4for4 and actually the one who tipped everyone off to the Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards Sunday only bet from Week 8. If you look at his name on the tracker, you will notice a lot of long shots, an area he has done well this year. If you didn’t read his Week 10 article, Dalton has hit some specials already but he wasn’t “technically” giving out 4for4 picks yet so you will be seeing me reiterate each week his tracked record versus actual record is going to be different in the tracker. Using his Week 10 article, Dalton started at 16.8 units just betting specials only.
What you don’t see from Dalton is a win-loss record. Since Dalton is working with a lot of long shots, a win-loss record is a bad way to measure him because so many long shots are losers and one winner completely changes a week and YTD record when looking at units. Lastly, Dalton is doing some regular weekly props along with long shots.
Dalton this week was one Tampa Bay Bucs overtime away from cashing his Joe Burrow Most Passing Yards on Sunday bet. Burrow ended the week second overall in passing yards and was passed by Tom Brady. This resulted in a five-unit swing against Dalton that was very close to cashing. Dalton did get a nice winner with a Cooper Kupp going over 100 yards + scoring a TD parlay. I'm not sure what FanDuel was thinking with that special as 4for4 projections had this bet as almost a coin flip. This was a great value find by Dalton!
Anthony Stalter
Week 14: 1-2, 33.33%, -1.05 units
YTD: 22-21, 51.16%, 0.11 units
TJ Calkins
Week 14: 2-1, 66.67%, 0.90 units
YTD: 16-21, 43.24%, -7.10 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
