Week 15 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
It’s a crazy week in the NFL with a lot of players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but it also features many games with large spreads. With no more bye weeks, there are plenty of contests to choose from.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 15, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 14 Recap
For the second straight week, my picks went 5-0, as the Packers, Chargers, Seahawks, Cowboys and Falcons all came out with wins in Week 14. That makes my full-season total 48-22 for this column.
Onto Week 15, where, hopefully, we continue to succeed in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Favorite Favorite
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins are on a five-game win streak and get the Jets at home, who haven’t won in Miami since 2015. This contest features a nine-point spread with 78% win odds in favor of Miami via both TeamRankings and Vegas.
Tua Tagovailoa is playing well and has DeVante Parker back. Their RB room is decimated by the reserve/COVID-19 list but it shouldn’t matter in this one. Public bettors are taking Miami 98% of the time so you will win or lose with your pool.
Sensibly-Priced Favorites
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
This NFC East showdown is one of three games on the Week 15 slate with a 10.5-point spread. Dallas has 82% win odds via both Vegas and TeamRankings, with 95% of the public on board. While that is high, it’s lower than the other contests in that same range, as bettors are taking Buffalo and Tampa Bay 98% of the time.
The Cowboys are just a better team at this point on both sides of the ball. While it may be closer than some think due to the rivalry, Dallas should take this. You’ll win or lose with most of your pool.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sometimes it pays to just take the easy pick and this game is setting up as the easy one this week. The 49ers are nine-point favorites at home, with 78% win odds via both TeamRankings and Vegas. Public pickers are on San Francisco 95% of the time, which is a tad under Miami (98%) and Tampa Bay (98%), which have similar spreads.
The 49ers have won four of their last five contests and could have Elijah Mitchell back this week. Atlanta has struggled with any consistency in 2021 and may make it a game, but the 49ers win at home.
Value Favorite
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
This other NFC East battle presents a favorite that the public is not backing in bulk at this point. The Eagles are 4.5-point home favorites with 67% win odds, yet bettors are only picking them 68% of the time. Green Bay has the exact same spread, yet public pickers are selecting the Packers at an 89% rate.
Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is banged up and Terry McLaurin is in concussion protocol, while the Eagles are rested off a bye week.
Upset Gamble
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m surprised the Texans are the underdogs here, but they are projected to lose by three points in this Week 15 contest. TeamRankings is giving Houston 40% win odds, and the public is taking the Texans only 37% of the time.
The Jags are a mess from the top to the bottom and Houston won their first meeting in Week 1. It may be close, but Davis Mills and the Texans are certainly capable of an upset.
Survivor Picks for Week 15
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 15 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Arizona Cardinals @ Lions (86%, 13.5-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Saints (82%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Panthers (82%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Giants (82%, 10.5-point favorites)
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Falcons (78%, 9-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 15 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Miami Dolphins vs. Jets (22%)
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Falcons (20%)
- Arizona Cardinals @ Lions (18%)
- Dallas Cowboys @ Giants (8%)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Football Team (5%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 15, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.4)
- Buffalo Bills (2.2)
- Green Bay Packers (1.9)
- New England Patriots (1.5)
- Indianapolis Colts (1.3)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
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