4for4 Betting Recap: Week 17
Welcome to the 4for4 football betting recap. My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter, TJ Calkins and Dalton Kates. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win one unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than one unit.
This week's recap will be different. I'll be going rapid-fire format because most handicappers were bad this week. With it being Week 18 next week, the Week 17 results don’t mean much because Week 18 will feature big swings. I did grade some futures but these aren’t paid out yet because books require a team to complete all 18 games this year.
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The weekly and year-to-date records will include it but the analysis was removed since it carried so much of them that week. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 17: 6-10, 37.50%, -5.93 units
YTD: 159-48-1 51.65%, 9.77 units
Futures: 8-2, 80%, 8.76 units (not final)
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan is coming off a third straight losing week and has given up large chunks of his earnings. He hasn’t changed anything in terms of his handicapping process, it seems a lot of variance went against him.
His futures are doing very well for the ones that can be “graded”. Only two of them are for sure losers—Browns and Football Team to win the division, with a third one all but dead in Rondale Moore over 545.5 receiving yards.
Connor Allen
Week 17: 3-5, 37.50%, -2.89 units
YTD: 147-115, 56.11%, 32.33 units
Futures: 3-9, 25%, -5.65 units (not final)
Dan’s Analysis: It was a down week for Connor, with Chuba Hubbard having a good day for him versus the Saints' run defense costing him. I am confident Connor will finish close to 35 units and I do think he beats his record of 36.99 units from last year, pending one futures bet—Cowboys to lead the NFL in points scored at 16/1 (risked half unit).
The Cowboys heading into Week 18 are leading the Bucs by nine points, meaning on Sunday if the Bucs can’t outscore the Cowboys by more than nine, this bet will cash. If the Bucs go out and score 30, which a lot of people will largely agree seems about right, Cowboys need to score 22+ to win or 21 to tie (dead-heat rules apply but will need to double-check with Connor).
Another futures bet that was doubtful a month ago was Kyle Pitts to break the rookie TE record of over 1,076.5 yards. Kyle Pitts needs 59 yards to break this record and I am going to guess the Falcons will force-feed him, Kyle Pitts does have a hamstring issue but I think he plays ultimately.
Sam Hoppen
Week 17: 1-3, 25%, -2.33 units
YTD: 40-35, 53.33%, 12.21 units
Futures: 1-2, 33.33%, -1.32 units (not final)
Dan’s Analysis: Another down week for Sam, unfortunately, and another week I don’t take anything away.
Greg Smith
Week 17: 3-2, 60.00%, 0.8 units
YTD: 71-64-1, 52.21%, 4.5 units
Dan’s Analysis: Nice little bounce back this week for Greg! No big takeaways this week but Greg now is 38-27 against the spread (58.46%). Greg had no futures given out on 4for4.
Dalton Kates
Week 17: 6.34 units
YTD: 32.27 units
Dan’s Analysis: Dalton is the Weekend Specialist at 4for4 and actually the one who tipped everyone off to the Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards Sunday only bet from Week 8. If you look at his name on the tracker, you will notice a lot of long shots, an area he has done well this year. If you didn’t read his Week 10 article, Dalton has hit some specials already but he wasn’t “technically” giving out 4for4 picks yet so you will be seeing me reiterate each week his tracked record versus actual record is going to be different in the tracker. Using his Week 10 article, Dalton started at 16.8 units just betting specials only.
What you don’t see from Dalton is a win-loss record. Since Dalton is working with a lot of long shots, a win-loss record is a bad way to measure him because so many long shots are losers and one winner completely changes a week and YTD record when looking at units. Lastly, Dalton is doing some regular weekly props along with long shots.
Another hit for the long-shot specialist! If you have not seen it on Twitter, quite a few people hit on his weekend specials bet for Rashaad Penny to lead the Sunday slate in rushing yards at the original 80-1 price.
Rashaad Penny 80/1 to rush for the most yards on Sunday💰
Massive shoutout to @DaltonGuruFF who pointed this out in @4for4football’s discord and noted how bad of a line it was.
I believe it closed at around 30/1. Sometimes CLV does pay the bills 👀 pic.twitter.com/RJNKKT28KL
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 3, 2022
Dalton has shown an ability to pick off these bets/numbers as books don’t know how to price these properly. Way to go, Dalton!
Anthony Stalter
Week 17: 0-2-1, 33.33%, -2.20 units
YTD: 24-27-1, 46.15%, -4.49 units
TJ Calkins
Week 17: 1-2. 33.33%, -1.20 units
YTD: 20-25, 44.44%, -7.50 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
