Super Bowl 56 Coin Toss Odds: The Value on Betting Heads or Tails

Feb 12, 2022

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Among the plethora of props you can play for the Super Bowl, one of the easiest and quickest is the coin toss. The odds are pretty easy to figure out here, it’s a 50-50 bet. You likely won’t find a sportsbook that will give you +100 odds on it and you’ll probably have to pay a minimal amount of juice on it, in all likelihood -105, so a $100 bet would net you $95 in winnings if you guess correctly. The coin toss prop is a popular bet because it’s one of the first things over the course of the night you can bet on, but it’s also not a market you’re likely ever going to be able to crack with any regularity. Check out some more Super Bowl betting tips we have for you.

Tails Never Fails?

Not surprisingly, in a 50-50 scenario, the adage “tails never fails” isn’t exactly true. In 55 Super Bowls, tails has come up 29 times and heads has come up 26 times. While tails doesn’t always succeed, it does have a slight edge historically. Interestingly enough, we’ve seen some runs in the coin toss over the past couple of decades. From Super Bowl 32 to Super Bowl 40, tails came up eight times in nine years. Heads came up all five times between Super Bowls 43 and 47. Last year, heads came up, but it was just the second time in the previous seven Super Bowls heads was the right call.

Recent History Against the Coin Toss Winner

Another coin toss bet you can make is: “Will the team that wins the coin toss win the Super Bowl?” Realistically, everything involving the coin toss is coincidental, but if you like trends, there are some out there. The team that won the coin toss has lost the last seven games. The Seahawks in Super Bowl 48 were the last team to win the coin toss and win the game. In that game, the Seahawks won the toss, deferred and the first snap of the game famously got past Peyton Manning for a safety. Oddly, the team that won the coin toss has only won the Super Bowl six times this century. In the history of the Super Bowl, the team that won the coin toss won the game 24 times—12 times heads, 12 times tails.

Will the Rams Call the Coin Toss Correctly?

A third coin toss betting option is: “Will the team that calls the coin toss be correct?” The Rams have been designated the road team in this game and will be making the call. Between the regular season and postseason, the Rams played 10 road games and, unsurprisingly, they won six coin tosses and lost four, so you would expect something with 50-50 odds, and it is almost an even split. Oddly enough, as a home team this year, the Bengals won the coin toss seven out of 10 times—all three losses were to AFC North rivals. Is that an actionable angle? Probably not, but it’s fun to think about. If you want to bet the coin toss prop, good luck. It’s strictly a “for entertainment purposes only” kind of bet.

To Receive or Defer?

The only coin toss-related bet on the board at BetMGM that isn’t a toss-up is: “What will be the decision of the coin toss winner?” Receive the kickoff is +375. Defer the option to the second half is -500. Based on season trends, this actually feels like one of the safest bets you can make on the Super Bowl. The Bengals won the coin toss 11 times this year. The Rams won the coin toss 10 times. In the combined 21 times these teams won the coin toss they chose to defer the option to the second half every single time. It’s hard to imagine that the teams will change their strategy in the biggest game of the year. If you want to take a wild swing at something early in the night that’s a big plus-money underdog, by all means go for it, but I wouldn’t advise it.