Will D.J. Chark Feast in Detroit's Offense?

Detroit talked about going to work on their receiver room almost immediately after the 2021 season ended. Considering their depth chart, it made all the sense in the world. It took a little while, but they eventually landed D.J. Chark on a team-friendly, one-year deal. Chark now joins a group of pass-catchers that includes Josh Reynolds, T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and D'Andre Swift. How does Chark fit in and what can he provide to fantasy managers in 2022?

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What Do We Know About D.J. Chark?

Chark played his first four seasons in Jacksonville and for the most part, he was red-shirted his rookie season, playing just 26% of the snaps. He was widely described as a raw prospect entering the 2018 NFL Draft and would need time to develop. It didn't take long for him to break out and he finished his sophomore campaign with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns on 73 receptions and 118 targets. He finished as the WR16 that season with a 12.6 half-PPR PPG average. Unfortunately, that would prove to be his only useful fantasy season.

While Chark has never been able to replicate the magic of his second season, who he's been hasn't changed. Despite a third season where he finished with just 706 yards on 53 receptions in 13, an apparent disappointment following the success of his previous season, a deeper look shows you something different.

The former second-rounder's game didn't change even though the final stat line looks as though it did, so why the discrepancy? In 2019, Chark had a catchable target rate of 80.3% according to PlayerProfiler, which ranked 34th among qualifying receivers. In 2020, that number dropped to 71.0%, dropping him all the way down to 90th. Not surprisingly, his overall catch rate fell by 5%. Due to the lower number of catchable targets in 2020, he actually racked up more unrealized air yards than he did in 2019 despite playing in two fewer games.

Last season was one Chark and just about every single Jaguar would like to forget. He managed to play just four games before a fractured ankle stole the rest of his fourth season. Fantasy managers were optimistic with the draft selection of Trevor Lawrence, but there were no on-the-field benefits. He managed just seven receptions on 22 targets, a pathetically low 31.8% catch rate. If there was one silver lining, it was his 22.0 yard per reception average and being able to have found the end zone twice, despite just seven catches.

While his consistency has waned at times, he's proven to be a dependable deep threat. In 2019, he had 727 completed air yards and 725 unrealized air yards. This ranked 21st and 15th, respectively. In 2020, he had 544 completed air yards and 756 unrealized air yards. Despite missing three games, he ranked 33rd and 9th in those categories respectively. His skill set, at first glance, seems to fit seamlessly in Detroit's offense. With Hockenson, Swift, and St. Brown all excelling in the short to intermediate area of the field, the Lions desperately needed someone to threaten the defense downfield. Chark can do that, but will that lead to any fantasy success?

Will D.J. Chark Make Waves in Fantasy?

Fantasy managers should tread carefully with Chark this season. While there's no question Detroit brought Chark into the fold for a reason, the concern is just how valuable that reason will end up being. Based on the effectiveness St. Brown showed as a rookie in 2021 and Swift's ascension into being one of the best receiving running backs in the league, fantasy managers should be expecting Chark to work exclusively down the field, and therein lies the problem because Detroit's quarterback is still Jared Goff.

Gardner Minshew appeared in nine games and was the primary starter for the Jaguars in 2020. Chark was also forced to try and catch passes from Mike Glennon and Jake Luton. They were worse than Minshew and Goff, but even with Minshew at the helm, it didn't result in any fantasy goodness. He was just the WR43 in half-PPR scoring with Minshew at quarterback in terms of PPG. The concern is the lack of success with Minshew in 2020 and the even worse schematic fit between Chark and Goff.

Among qualifying passers in 2021, Goff ranked dead last in intended air yards per attempt. Worse than Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, and Sam Darnold. That is a major red flag for Chark's fantasy prospects in 2022. Due to Chark never having a target share higher than 22% or a catch rate higher than 62%, he really needs to make his targets count. In 2019, he did this by having a 12.4 average depth of target (aDOT) and by registering 25 targets of 20 or more yards, which ranked 18th among receivers that season.

With Goff all but refusing to throw the ball downfield, the former Jaguar may struggle to provide any sort of consistent fantasy value in 2022. He was one of the most conservative passers in 2021 and it's been a trend Goff has carried with him for the majority of his career. Even in 2020, his intended air yards per attempt was just 6.5, once again finishing at the bottom of the barrel among qualifying passers.

Not only that, but over the past three seasons, he has struggled with a below-league average touchdown rate. In 2021, Goff had a 3.8% touchdown rate, which ranked 22nd in the NFL and this was actually better than his touchdown rate in 2019 and 2020 when he was with the Rams.

Unfortunately, the Chark signing may have a bigger impact on the Lions' offense than it will in any fantasy football lineups. Chark will have his weeks in 2022, but predicting them will be almost impossible and with his expected lower target share, he'll struggle to provide fantasy managers with consistent weekly production. There's limited touchdown potential in what should be another below-average NFL offense and because of that, it's highly unlikely he'll be able to provide consistent WR3 value in 2022.

Fantasy Fallout in Detroit

There are some concerns about if there are too many mouths to feed in Detroit now that the offense has Chark, St. Brown, Hockenson, and Swift. The reality is there isn't a lot of overlap between talents and roles, which is great for fantasy managers. Chark will have his role. St. Brown will have his, Hockenson and Swift will have theirs. That's not to say they won't impact each other, but fantasy managers really don't need to worry about Chark taking away snaps from St. Brown. The Detroit brass really did an excellent job of putting together an offensive unit that really does compliment each other very nicely.

Last season, the Lions attempted 593 total passes—312 of them did not go to St. Brown, Hockenson, or Swift. That is a ton of volume that was directed at mostly replaceable talent. You also need to remember just how little Goff pushed the ball down the field. Some of that may have been a result of the Lions lacking a skilled deep ball threat, but there's no reason to expect Goff to morph into someone like Jameis Winston overnight, certainly not due to the addition of D.J. Chark. So what might this look like?

The table above is working off a 600-attempt season, which would have been 15th in the NFL last season. As you can see, there's plenty of volume available for the other pass-catchers in Detroit to be fantasy viable and you should expect them to be.

St. Brown is best suited for PPR-scoring leagues, but he should be treated as a WR2/3. Hockenson will see enough volume to be a top-tier tight end, but one who will struggle to catch enough touchdowns to climb into that elite stratosphere of players at his position. He's best viewed as a mid-TE1 for 2022. Swift will once again be one of the most heavily targeted running backs in the league and he carries RB1 upside. Chark and Reynolds will have their boom weeks, but they'll struggle to provide consistent fantasy production.

The Bottom Line

• Chark will struggle with Goff who has not shown a tendency or the ability to throw an effective deep ball.
• He'll provide some boom weeks, but they'll be unpredictable.
• Chark is best viewed as a WR4/5.
• St. Brown should be viewed as the pass-catcher to have in Detroit and has WR2 upside in PPR leagues.
• There will be enough volume to keep Hockenson afloat as a mid-TE1.
• Swift should still be expected to be one of the most heavily targeted running backs and has RB1 upside.
• Reynolds should be left on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of leagues.