What is Davante Adams' Fantasy Impact on the Raiders?

After Aaron Rodgers signed with the Green Bay Packers and announced his return to Titletown, many thought it was a foregone conclusion before Davante Adams was extended too. After all, these two were the best quarterback–wide receiver duo in the league. But the fantasy football landscape got flipped upside-down the other day when news came almost out of the blue that Adams would be traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Just like that, his reign as the WR1 in all of football came to an end. Or did it?

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The Undisputed Wide Receiver Champion

When couch general managers and fantasy football managers around the world talk about who is the very best player at certain positions, there really shouldn't be any debate as it pertains to wide receiver. As the kids say on Twitter, "it isn't even close" and it isn't. Adams is the king, the creme de la creme, the unquestioned best player at his position and he's proven it over the past couple of years.

Unfortunately, the now-former Packer has struggled a bit with injuries and it's been common for him to miss a few games each season. In fact, he has not played a full season since 2016, but when he's been on the field there has been no one as dominant. Since 2016, the former Fresno State standout has recorded 69 receiving touchdowns, the most in the NFL. The next closest has 60 and fifth place is all the way down at 48 touchdowns in that span. Adams has fewer games played than all of the receivers in the top-five, except one.

During that time period, he also has the most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards among NFL pass-catchers. A rare six-year reign of superiority and there's a reason for it and it actually isn't what—or rather who—you might think it is. Having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback undoubtedly helped Adams, but that relationship was mutualistic. Adams is one of, if not the best route-runner in the game. In his Reception Perception Profile, Matt Harmon writes,

His 79.6% success rate vs. man coverage checks in at the 98th percentile. Adams’ consistent domination of this metric is why he’s all but sealed the debate about who is the best route-runner in the NFL. Adams’ success rate vs. man coverage scores the last four years: 79.5%, 78%, 79.5% and 79.6%. That is just unbelievably good. Meanwhile, his 2021 success rate vs. zone coverage (87.6%) comes in at the 96th percentile and his 85.9% success rate vs. press is the third-highest score in Reception Perception history.

His dominance is well-documented with Rodgers, but what can fantasy managers expect now that he's moved to Las Vegas and has since teamed up with former college quarterback, Derek Carr?

Is Davante Adams Still an Elite Fantasy Receiver in Las Vegas?

The short answer: absolutely. While no one should expect Derek Carr to suddenly become Aaron Rodgers, the reality is Carr is a really good quarterback who has never had a weapon even remotely close to as talented as Adams. The best receiver the eight-year signal-caller has ever played with is arguably Amari Cooper or Darren Waller. No disrespect to them, but they are not even close to Adams' class of talent. Fantasy managers should expect to see Carr's best version of himself in 2022.

The efficiency of the Rodgers-to-Adams connection is unlikely to be replicated in Las Vegas, but maybe it doesn't have to be. Last season, the Packers threw the ball 34.8 times per game, while the Raiders were at 36.9 per game. That 2.1 pass-per-game difference may not sound like a lot, but when multiplied over the course of a 17-game season, you get an extra 35.7 attempts. Based on Green Bay's average last season, that amounts to an extra game of volume.

While the downgrade at quarterback is not something to be ignored, one of the positives of Adams's trip out west is far fewer double-teams. No receiver garnered more double-coverage than he did last season.

Davante Adams saw the second-most double/help coverage (26%) and the most true bracket coverage at 4.5% in 2021 (min 200 routes).



Waller saw 19th-most double/help (21%) and Renfrow saw second most bracket (2.8%).



Defenses will be forced to play this offense differently in 2022.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) March 18, 2022

There are several reasons for this. One, he's insanely good, but two, the Packers simply did not employ anyone else the defense had to worry about. That no longer is the case in Las Vegas. Hunter Renfrow and especially Darren Waller will command their own fair share of defensive attention, which will leave Adams with more single coverage opportunities than he's seen in years and he's simply unguardable one-on-one.

Adams Has Proven to be Elite Without Rodgers Before

Luckily, fantasy managers have some insight into what life without Rodgers might look like. In 2017, Rodgers missed Weeks 6–14, leaving Adams catching passes from fifth-round prospect, Brett Hundley. During that time, the former Packer averaged 13.8 half-PPR points per game, good for WR11. Extrapolating his eight games with Hundley under center, Adams would have finished with 98 catches, 1,154 yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite the sub-optimal quarterback play, Adams still managed to finish as a top-12 receiver in five of his eight games—62% of the time—with Hundley at quarterback.

Fantasy managers should expect Adams' target share to remain in the top-10 among pass-catchers. As talented as Waller and Renfrow may be, Adams is just different. Last season, Carr threw 189 passes to the likes of Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, Henry Ruggs III, DeSean Jackson and Willie Snead. That's to say nothing of the 128 targets Renfrow received which look a bit questionable at the moment.

The last four seasons, the eight-year pro has recorded target shares of 28.5% (2021), 28.3% (2020), 22.2% (2019) and 26.4% (2018). His lowest target share came in 2019 when he missed four games. Following another blistering 2021 campaign, the two-time All-Pro has given fantasy managers exactly zero reasons to expect any decline.

Even if Adams "only" has a 25% target share, which would be the lowest he's had in the last four years when he's played at least 13 games, he'd still have 157 targets working off of Las Vegas's 626 attempts in 2021. Working off his 66% catch rate, he'd finish 103 receptions.

The Fallout of Cashing In

Adams certainly got the bag from the Raiders and cashed in with a contract worth $141 million and while that's quite the score off the field, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting him to score quite as easily on the field in 2022. This past year, the Packers scored 3.0 offensive touchdowns per game, compared to just 2.1 for the Raiders. In fact, in Carr's tenure, the Raiders have only two seasons where they've scored 2.8 or more offensive touchdowns per game and they have five seasons with a rate of 2.3 or less.

The discrepancy between the Packers and Raiders in 2021 was 14 touchdowns, just under one per game. One of the big reasons for this difference is the career touchdown rate between Rodgers and Carr. While Carr is at 4.3%, Rodgers is all the way at 6.3%. Using Carr's 626 attempts in 2021, based on career averages, Rodgers would throw 39 touchdowns whereas Carr would have 27.

While fantasy managers may continue to see Adams put up similar reception and yardage totals in the Sin City, fantasy managers should expect Adams to find the end zone far less than he did in Green Bay. While this will most likely not affect his ability to finish as a top-10 receiver, it certainly impacts his ceiling and potential to be the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver.

What is the Residual Effect of the Davante Adams Trade?

While the addition of Adams certainly raises Derek Carr's ceiling, fantasy managers should tread lightly here. In eight seasons, the former Fresno State standout has just one top-12 fantasy finish. There's no question Adams gives Carr that kind of upside, but the wealth of passers in the NFL is amazing. Last season, Carr finished with 271 points. The QB12, in terms of PPG, Kirk Cousins, finished with 307 points, in one fewer contest no less. Had Cousins played that 17th game, like Carr, he would have been at 327 points.

Even using Cousins' 307 point total, Carr would have needed to throw an extra nine touchdowns just to get to QB12 status and he still wouldn't have been QB12 in terms of PPG. No, for that to have happened, Carr would've needed 14 (!) more touchdowns. While you may also expect Carr to pass for more yardage, the reality is he was already fifth in the league in that category with 4,804 yards so the question becomes just how much higher can that realistically go? While you should expect Carr to throw for more scores with Adams in tow, he's been held to 23 or fewer touchdowns in five of his eight seasons. He's recorded just one season of more than 30. Adams will undoubtedly help, but will it be enough?

The reason you shouldn't buy into a possible QB1 finish for Carr in 2022 is that he doesn't run—at all. In eight seasons, he has five with less than 100 yards and has never had more than 150 yards. This puts him at such a serious disadvantage. The quarterback position is absolutely stacked going into 2022. Fantasy managers should expect to see Carr finish between QB13 and QB16.

On the flip side, whereas Carr is adding Davante Adams, Rodgers will be learning to play without him. We have all, no doubt, seen the statistics of Rodgers with and without Adams. Since Adams has often missed a few games here and there, the picture doesn't look so dire on the surface.

Aaron Rodgers with and without Davante Adams over the last five seasons, courtesy of @RotoViz.



Limited sample size, but the splits are negligible. pic.twitter.com/0AQZfj8VyK

— Kate Magdziuk (@FFballblast) March 18, 2022

While on the surface, it looks like Rodgers is just as good without his No. 1 receiver, you should be careful with that narrative. As you can see in the eight games without Adams, Rodgers attempted five fewer pass attempts per game. That's substantial. Across a 17-game season, that would amount to 85 attempts. That's a lot—almost two and a half games worth.

The other thing you'll notice is that despite throwing five fewer passes and being without Adams, he's actually thrown .27 more touchdowns per game, which by season's end would equal 4–5 extra scores. This is one of the dangers of small sample sizes. There's no reason to expect Rodgers to throw more touchdowns without Adams and on significantly fewer pass attempts.

With running backs A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones on the roster and essentially a brand new group of pass-catchers, fantasy managers should be expecting the Packers to be more a run-heavy team in 2022. It's what their personnel will dictate. While their depth chart is certainly not complete and they'll have 1–2 rookies at receiver and maybe even sign a guy like Jarvis Landry, there's no reason to expect Rodgers' 7.0% touchdown rate from 2021 not to fall. His career rate is at 6.3%, which would represent a four-touchdown decrease in 2021 just going down to his career rate.

However, throughout Rodgers' tenure as a Packer, this will likely be his worst pass-catching group, by far. He's been gifted with receivers like Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams for the duration of his career. He's always had at least one stud. That may not be the case in 2022. Fantasy managers are likely best treating Rodgers as a high-end QB2, one who has the upside of a backend QB1, but just like Carr, Rodgers offers nothing on the ground. So he'll have to earn his keep with his passing stats, which becomes a much more difficult task considering the weapons he'll be targeting.

The immediate reaction after such a big trade is to assume guys like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are doomed, but that shouldn't be the case, especially as it relates to Waller. The reality is, as previously mentioned, Carr threw 189 passes to what amounts to, a bunch of no-names. You should expect almost all of Adams' new-found targets to come from this group, not from Waller and Renfrow.

While Carr spread the ball around quite a bit in 2021, fantasy managers should be expecting a much more consolidated passing attack in 2022. It's going to be spear-headed by Adams, Waller, and Renfrow, and whatever is left over after that will go to the rest. That won't be much. These three are going to command such a large chunk of Carr's attention and the Las Vegas game plan.

While Waller's overall ceiling is impacted by Adams' arrival, his standing as a top-five tight end shouldn't be altered. Fantasy managers should expect Waller to finish with well over 100 targets, which isn't a mark many tight ends surpass. The past three seasons, Waller has had just a 3.9% touchdown rate, a number that has the potential to climb considerably with Adams helping to increase the overall offensive output.

Renfrow will likely continue to be a dependable PPR asset, but expecting another high-end WR2 finish is wishful thinking. The reason for that, his nine touchdowns. That's a 7.0% touchdown rate, one he's not likely to replicate with Davante Adams and a healthy Darren Waller on the roster. In Renfrow's rookie and sophomore season, he had a 71% catch rate. That number climbed to 80.5% in 2021. It's fair to expect some regression in this department, even as he continues to operate from the slot receiver position, which tends to yield higher catch rates. Renfrow is best viewed as a backend WR3 in 2022.

The Bottom Line

• Adams will once again command an elite target share.
• He will see more single coverage with more established weapons around him.
• He will provide similar reception and yardage totals to what he has posted in previous seasons.
• Adams might struggle to score as many touchdowns, which lowers his ceiling.
• He should still be treated as a top-10 receiver, but one that has a lower chance of finishing as the WR1.
• Carr gets a definite boost, but expecting a QB1 finish is still unlikely.
• Rodgers' ceiling is lowered significantly and can no longer be viewed as a lock for QB1 status.
• Waller should continue to be treated as a top-5 tight end and has higher scoring potential in 2022.
• Renfrow is still a PPR asset, but his 2021 is unlikely to be replicated as he found the end zone nine times.