Can JuJu Smith-Schuster be the WR2 the Chiefs Have Missed?

JuJu Smith-Schuster is joining the Chiefs on a one-year deal, replacing Tyreek Hiil, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. It appears as if the former Steeler will be the top receiver barring another blockbuster trade involving the Chiefs. Smith-Schuster is not Hill and he will not replace Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes' favorite passing target, but will he help smooth over the loss of a dynamic wideout and be a player you need to target?

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More Plays, But Less Opportunities in Kansas City

Smith-Schuster is headed to an offense that wants to snap the ball and get as many plays on offense as possible in neutral situations.

^{Pace data courtesy of Football Outsiders}

This is a bit of a change from Pittsburgh where the Steelers topped the Chiefs once over the past four seasons in time between plays in the same situation.

^{Pace data courtesy of Football Outsiders}

Only eight teams used ‘11 personnel’ (one running back, one tight, three receivers, SportsInfoSolutions) more than the Chiefs, so the sky's the limit for JuJu based on the Chiefs' pace, right? Maybe. If we account for the Chiefs upping their running efficiency in the second half of the 2021 season (Football Outsiders), then Smith-Schuster could be on the field often but without the ball coming his way. The other issue is how often Mahomes targets Kelce and the new additions to the offense that are not on the team at the moment. The Hill and Kelce combined for 46% of passing targets in 2021 and were the only two to have more than 83 targets. Prior to the Hill trade, only 106 targets were available from last year’s team. The trade gives Smith-Schuster a lot more targets to claim but with incumbent Mecole Hardman and recently signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the fold, JSS will have competition for Mahomes' eye.

Smith-Schuster has caught 68% of balls thrown his way in his career and has only two seasons of 100-plus targets. To his credit, JuJu led the Steelers in receiving yards over Antonio Brown in 2018 while collecting two fewer targets in two fewer games. In 2020, Smith-Schuster produced as one of three wideouts to receiver 100-plus targets in Pittsburgh.

JuJu has seen a drop in yards per reception and average depth of target (aDOT), settling in at 8.6 yards per reception and a 6.5 aDOT in five games last season. If those numbers were to remain consistent, he would be running similar routes as Kelce (7.5 aDOT in 2021). That is expected to change with Hill gone and Smith-Schuster not necessarily as good in space.

Smith-Schuster has been a dependable wideout since entering the league in 2017, but has not been expected to be a team's WR1 at any point in his career.

It is imperative to pay attention to Kansas City Chiefs beat reporters leading up to the NFL Draft. The Chiefs have six of the first 103 picks in late April's draft (29, 30, 50, 62, 94, and 103). It would not be a surprise if one or two of those top 62 picks are receivers that fit around what Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, MVS, and Kelce do best. Hill was traded in part because of his new contract and the Chiefs needing to fill holes throughout the roster. A still good roster is going to see some revitalization that is needed on a top-heavy team in a loaded division.

Steelers Thin At Receiver After Free Agency

A change of scenery may boost JuJu’s fantasy prospects, but his departure leaves one of the numerous holes in the Steelers passing game. James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud have left via free agency and the only wideout coming to Pittsburgh is Gunner Olszewski. Needless to say Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson are the top options as the offseason presses on, but with the team lacking a WR3 and transitioning to Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and/or Dwayne Haskins at quarterback, there are plenty of questions regarding how well the Steelers offense can and will be in 2022.

What will help the offense is Trubisky’s mobility and still having two distinct wideouts to target. Johnson is the clear WR1 and while Claypool struggled to be the possession receiver with Ben Roethlisberger, he has an opportunity to make good with a new signal-caller. The Steelers will also have second-year tight end Pat Freiermuth. His continued progression in Matt Canada’s offense is paramount will defenses keying in on Johnson and Claypool.

Until a third wideout is secured in the Steelers offense, running back Najee Harris will remain as an elite pass-catching option. Harris tied with Austin Ekeler for the league lead in running back targets (94) but only saw a target on 9.4% of snaps. His elite usage in the running game plus passing game targets are why Harris is ranked fifth in 4for4’s Never-Too-Early Rankings.

Pittsburgh is looking to replace 138 wide receiver targets from 2021. While Johnson and Claypool could soak up some of them, Freiermuth and the team’s next WR3 stand to benefit the most from the departures of Smith-Schuster and company.

Bottom Line

• JuJu Smith-Schuster becomes the defacto top receiver now that Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson are on new teams.
• The Chiefs were more efficient running the ball in the second half of the season while also being one of the quickest offenses to snap the ball after the previous play. More snaps does not necessarily mean more targets in the Chiefs offense.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers have a distinct top two wideout situation but lack depth and have a transition coming at quarterback.
• Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth benefit as the offense currently stands, but the decided third receiver has a chance to have an impact with the amount of vacated targets in the Steelers offense.
• Using 4for4 rankings and Underdog best ball ADP, Smith-Schuster is being drafted as a WR3 and a top 100 pick in best ball. Selecting him in those ranges is recommended as long as his ADP does not sky-rocket. It is okay to be hesitant adding him to your best ball, re-draft, and/or dynasty teams. Smith-Schuster essentially has one more month to get acclimated with Patrick Mahomes than receivers added via the draft, and potentially less time with free agent additions. At WR46 on Underdog, it would not be surprising to see Smith-Schuster jump into the top 30 at wideout prior to the draft. That puts him in the same range as Brandin Cooks, Hunter Renfrow, and Darnell Mooney, among others. Few receivers in that range project as the team's top receiver. That is a positive for JuJu.