Can Marquez Valdes-Scantling be a WR1 with the Chiefs?

The speed lost in the trade sending Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins was quickly addressed by the Kansas City Chiefs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling signed a three-year deal with the team and became the second new face in their receiver room alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster.

MVS is not Tyreek Hill but his linear speed and improved catching can help ease the loss of the dynamic Hill. The Chiefs offense has a chance to show it does not have to be top-heavy to succeed in real-life games, which is something fantasy players have been craving when trying to find fantasy value in players catching the ball from Patrick Mahomes.

Click here for more 2022 Player Profiles!

The Value of a Downfield Threat

Valdes-Scantling is a combination of size and speed. The 6-foot-4 wideout is a GUAGI (go up and get it) threat that was able to cut his teeth with future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers and lived to tell about it. MVS saw at least 54 targets in each season he played with Rodgers (2018-21) and had a career-best 690 receiving yards and six scores in 2020. It may not seem like a number worth $10 million per season if MVS plays out the length of his deal, but his role was to strictly be a downfield target for the Packers.

Davante Adams was the only receiver on the Packers that saw more air yards than Valdes-Scantling from 2018–2021. Valdes-Scantling’s 31.4% market share of air yards was 25th in the NFL in 2021.

The targets and air yards did not translate in year four in part to missed throws by Rodgers. MVS had zero drops on 55 targets in 11 games last season (SportsInfoSolutions). This is a positive that Valdes-Scantling can build on with Mahomes in 2022.

As of his signing, MVS is the obvious downfield target for the Chiefs. Yes, Hardman was drafted to help potentially replace Hill’s field-stretching abilities, but his 7.4 aDOT in 2021 was three yards lower than Hill’s and 10.8 behind MVS. Hardman’s realization in the offense is better with space in front of him and not trying to win one-on-one down the field.

Those long routes for MVS did come with a cost. He played 62% of snaps in 2021, third on the Packers. A lower aDOT and his size should keep him on the field over Hardman (52% of snaps in 2021) unless head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy are more interested in a slightly more conservative passing attack with Hardman and Smith-Schuster on early downs.

The Chiefs run a lot of ‘13 personnel’ as discussed in the Smith-Schuster profile, but unless MVS can distinguish himself early, those snaps in three-wide sets are not guaranteed to be targets.

It is realistic that Valdes-Scantling can top his career-best 74 targets in 2018 with time and work put in with Mahomes.

Not Enough Cheddar in Green Bay

The Packers enter 2022 with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as their top two receivers.

Good thing Aaron Rodgers got his cash.

Green Bay is expected to draft multiple pass-catchers, potentially two in the first round of the NFL Draft because of the trade sending Davante Adams to Las Vegas. The Packers are looking to replace 244 receiver targets heading into next season.

Short of a free agent signing and draft picks spent at wideout, the biggest benefactors of the overhaul at receiver are Lazard, Cobb, and Aaron Jones. Jones finished second on the team in targets. His role in the passing game should allow fellow running back A.J. Dillon to see more touches in the backfield and give the Packers unique formations on passing downs with potentially two (or three) backs on the field at the same time.

Aaron Rodgers will take a hit in real and fantasy production. The offense is run well with Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur but the decision-making this offseason is going to require turning a lot of lemons into lemonade.

Bottom Line

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a big-bodied receiver who excels at being a downfield option. His first four years playing with a top-flight quarterback are key to his transition to playing with Patrick Mahomes.
• MVS could have a lower aDOT if he secures the WR2 role opposite JuJu Smith-Schuster.
• Despite his expected role after being drafted, Mecole Hardman is best utilized closer to the line of scrimmage compared to MVS. The two should not be seen as equals in terms of roles.
• The Packers need as many capable receivers as possible after losing Davante Adams and Valdes-Scantling. The players most likely to see upticks in targets are Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and running back Aaron Jones.
• MVS is being drafted as the WR80 (178.3 ADP) in Underdog best ball leagues. That is nine receiver spots and 23.1 picks later than Hardman, a player he can beat out for snaps and targets. He is a player who should see his ADP go up and is worthy of consideration in drafts all the way up to WR50.
• Current receivers being drafted ahead of MVS include Odell Beckham (ACL), Michael Gallup (ACL), Will Fuller (WR58), Josh Palmer (WR59), David Bell (rookie), Jahan Dotson (rookie), and Cedrick Wilson (WR75), among others.