NBA Player Prop Bets: Tatum Dropping Dimes

The first change of venue is always intriguing in a playoff series, especially today with teams having extra time between Games 2 and 3 to prepare. To bank purely on what was seen in the first couple of games would be foolish, so there should be some underlying numbers that also show a chance they're sustainable even with variables.

In the case of these two games, there are also lineup considerations to take into account with Marcus Smart being back for Boston, Steven Adams available to make his series debut, and possibly a healthier version of Desmond Bane.

To help out in your prep for today, make sure to check out 4for4’s Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer and get involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Saturday.

*Lines accurate at time of publication

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (May 7, 2022)

Jayson Tatum Over 6.5 Assists (+140)

Even in the more egalitarian style of offense that has served the Celtics well since the calendar turned to 2022, Jayson Tatum has been the engine—putting him in plenty of positions to set up his teammates.

Over the course of the playoffs, Tatum has averaged 7.2 assists on 14.3 potential assists and he has gone over this number in three of the six games. The most encouraging aspect of increased playoff minutes and responsibility has been the increase in potential assist numbers. The general rule of thumb is those convert around a 50% clip. That has borne out with the average playoff numbers. In Game 2, Tatum had eight assists on 15 potential assists.

There is reason to think room for growth still exists as well because if Milwaukee attempts to increase the pace at home, more possessions are never a bad thing for an over—a trend this series with Tatum’s touch time. Admittedly, this is thrown off some by Marcus Smart being out for Game 2, but the increase is stark.

In the two games against Milwaukee, Tatum’s front-court touches have increased from 48.5 against Brooklyn to 58.5 against Milwaukee. Encouraging for this specific prop is even with the extra touches, Tatum’s seconds per touch have gone down, from 4.06 seconds to 3.67, as well as dribbles per touch, 2.95 to 2.81. That shows Tatum is being more decisive and not relying quite as much on isolating for offense. There are too many factors showing an over lean for this juice to be right.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.4 units. (Playable to +110)

Andrew Wiggins Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)

As the Warriors have continued to play small in the playoffs, Andrew Wiggins has taken a stronger hold on the rebounding responsibilities.

Wiggins is averaging 7.3 rebounds on 11.7 rebounding chances total. In two games so far against the Grizzlies, he has recorded 8.5 rebounds on 16.5 rebounding chances. He went over this prop in both games, and in four of seven playoff games total.

As mentioned above, Golden State has been playing smaller and in this iteration of the non-center Warriors lineup, Wiggins has to play power forward, which keeps him closer to the rebounding position. Compared to after the All-Star break, where Wiggins’ average rebound was from 7.3 feet away, it is 6.1 feet in this series. That is even more stark of a contrast when you consider Memphis has taken 40+ threes in each game of the series, so the average rebound distance is further than over a longer sample against a variety of opponents.

The word of caution is that Steven Adams is now able to play for the Grizzlies after being in the health and safety protocols. He is great on the glass but the question will be if or how much he will be utilized? Adams was played off the floor in the Minnesota series, so Memphis has to weigh what matters more in terms of the help on the glass versus being picked on defensively. Either way, there is still value in this prop.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.16 units. (Playable to +100)

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (May 7, 2022)

Wesley Matthews Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+120)

Wesley Matthews is far from the player who has the sexiest game to track but he is effective and someone whose role is defined, which means his minutes are generally safe.

Matthews has gone over this prop in every home game of the playoffs, combining to go 7-13 against the Bulls. Matthews has only gone 1-7 from deep in this series but there should be an emphasis on more attempts from deep for Milwaukee after only taking 18 in Game 2.

The old axiom that role players play better at home in the playoffs has played out for Matthews as well. As opposed to the home number above, Matthews has gone 4-15 from three on the road this playoff. Coming off what he did in Boston, there is an over adjustment to his line.

Matthews has averaged 29:19 in the two games of this series, which is encouraging considering there was some garbage time at the end of both games. That could allow Matthews to eke out an extra minute or two if Game 3 is as close as anticipated.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units. (Playable to -105)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.