Can Kadarius Toney be the Giants' WR1 in 2022?

Kadarius Toney could be the New York Giants' No. 1 receiver this season. The competition is extremely light with Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Wan’Dale Robinson. With an Underdog ADP of WR44, fantasy managers should be more than willing to roll that dice on Toney and find out.

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Kadarius Toney's Pre-NFL Profile

When the Giants used the 20th overall pick on Toney, many draft pundits and fantasy football analysts called it a “giant” reach. There were jokes made on Dave Gettleman’s behalf and for many, he became a player to avoid without even playing a down.

His college profile undoubtedly had some red flags. He was a four-year player at Florida and never had a season with more than 85 targets or 1,000 yards. His first three years in college concluded with a combined stat line of 66 targets, 50 receptions, 606 yards, and just 2 touchdowns across 27 contests.

According to PlayerProfiler, he had a college dominator of 23.7% (31st-percentile), a 19.4% target share (48th-percentile), and a 21.6 breakout age (23rd-percentile). This gave fantasy analysts plenty to be worried about. Despite those low scores, it wasn’t all bad.

He posted yard per route run averages of 2.34 (2017), 2.02 (2018), 3.73 (2019), and 2.62 (2020). He also proved to be an exceptional athlete who was consistently one of the best players in the country after the catch.

It all came together during his senior season when he bested his first three seasons combined. He finished with 84 targets, 70 receptions, 977 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He wrapped up his collegiate career with an 80% catch percentage, a 2.56 yard per route run average, and averaged 8.5 yards after the catch per reception.

Kadarius Toney's Rookie Season

There were very few expectations put on Toney as a rookie. The former Gator was likely drafted as a replacement for slot receiver, Sterling Shepard. With the veteran active early, Toney played just 8% and 28% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2. That changed in Week 3 when Shepard got injured and missed the next two weeks.

At that time, Toney had accounted for just four receptions and 14 yards through the first three weeks of the season, but he made the most of his opportunity with Shepard missing the next two games. During those two spot starts, he earned a whopping 22 targets and a 30.1% target share. He caught 16 of them for 267 yards. It’s an incredibly small sample size, but during that time, he ranked sixth in targets per game, third in receptions, and second in yardage.

When Shepard returned in Week 6, Toney was relegated back to a depth role, playing just 8% of the snaps again. He wouldn’t have to wait long before an opportunity presented itself again. Throughout his rookie season, Toney played seven games with a snap share higher than 50%. Unfortunately, his own dings and dents kept him off the field after Shepard tore his Achilles. Still, Toney flashed in those seven weeks when he received regular playing time.

Despite his collegiate concerns, when he got a chance to play, he played very well. His seven-game sample across 17-games would have concluded with him having 117 targets, 83 receptions, and 937 yards.

Kadarius Toney 10 targets per game who says nopic.twitter.com/SgrsmKfhpc

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 3, 2021

The one area where Toney especially excelled was in making defenders miss and getting yards after the catch. From the highlight video above, it’s clear just how electric he can be in the open field. That shows up on the film and it shows up on the spreadsheets too. According to PlayerProfiler, he had a 66.7% juke rate, which is defined as the number of evaded tackles per reception or rush attempt—among receivers his rate was first in the entire NFL. He averaged six yards after the catch per reception, which ranked 11th among receivers with at least 25 targets.

Maybe even more impressive was his target rate of 28.9%, which ranked seventh among receivers. When he was running routes, he was earning targets at a very high rate. This number shows his potential if he were able to increase his route participation in 2022. While the smaller sample size should be taken with a grain of salt, it’s important to recognize his target upside should he be given a starter’s route share.

So, What’s the Catch?

With players being drafted 40th or later at their position, there’s always a catch. While Toney popped in limited action, it’s fair to wonder just how much of that will translate if he’s granted a full snap share.

As you can see from the graphic above, Toney struggled mightily running routes. Reception Perception paints his route-running skills as pretty much non-existent. This means he needs to use his athleticism and depend on quality coaching to scheme him open. That can become a dangerous place to make your living because at some point, you have to beat the man across from you—Toney didn’t show he could do that consistently last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Toney's rookie season:

“Toney checked in at the 5th-percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and 11th in success rate vs press. He is by no means someone you can count on to consistently separate or present a reliable target as an outside receiver right now. On the positive end, his 80% success rate vs. zone coverage was better than expected and points to some promising growth as a slot receiver… Toney was “in space” on 14.2% of his sampled routes and went down on first on just 34.6% of those plays. He broke multiple tackles on 19.2% of his “in space” attempts.”

As fantasy managers, we need to take the good with the bad. At this time, he’s a raw receiver who requires his coaching staff to get him in space because he doesn’t yet have the skills to get open consistently for himself. However, if that happens, he can be a weapon.

The problem with this is that Toney profiles as strictly a slot receiver at this time. The Giants also took Wan’Dale Robinson in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft who also profiles as a slot receiver and it’s expected Sterling Shepard, another slot receiver, will enter at some point this season. Toney already had his name floated on the chopping block this offseason, so there are legitimate concerns regarding whether or not Toney is granted the full opportunity he needs to be a fantasy asset. If Toney, Robinson, and Shepard split slot duties, it will render him fantasy irrelevant.

What Should We Expect in 2022

The slot position in New York has been a fruitful role for Shepard over the past few seasons. We’ve also seen Cole Beasley be a fantasy asset in Buffalo where new head coach, Brian Daboll is coming from.

-Sterling Shepard has averaged 7.57 (2021, 129 pace) targets per game, 7.5 (2020, 128) & 8.3 (2019, 141) the last 3 yrs.

-Cole Beasley averaged 7 (2021, 119 pace, 7.13 (2020, 121) & 7.07 (2019, 120).



Kadarius Toney is the slot WR for NYG. ADP of WR46. But & here’s why.



1/ 🧵🧵

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 27, 2022

The Giants attempted 593 passes last year, which ranked 15th in the NFL. The Bills were even more pass-happy. New York’s defense, while improving, will likely be below-average again this season, which will force the Giants to throw.

There’s no denying how bad Daniel Jones has been the last two seasons, but it’s important to remember they signed Tyrod Taylor who has some starter money worth of incentives baked into his contract. While Jones will get the start early, it’s fair to assume his leash will be fairly short this season. New regimes often like to pick their quarterback. Jones’ time in New York is numbered if he doesn’t show improvement, and Daboll will have no reason not to turn the competent veteran. It stands to reason that no matter what happens, the Giants will have better quarterback play in 2022. Either Jones will improve, or he won’t and Taylor will get a shot.

The new coaching staff should breathe life into what has been a stale and disastrous offense. The receiver position leaves plenty of unanswered questions. That creates opportunity and value for fantasy managers. Toney’s Underdog ADP of WR43 presents a good deal of value if he’s able to secure the slot position on a full-time basis. That type of situation has WR3 upside and even WR2 upside in full-PPR. Here at 4for4, he’s ranked as the WR51.

The Bottom Line

• Toney flashed as a rookie and looked like a special player in the open field where he routinely made defenders miss and picked up extra yardage.
• With the Giants having previously said they’re willing to trade him and with the draft selection of Wan’Dale Robinson, there are legitimate concerns as to what Toney's role will be this season.
• His target rate and yard per route run numbers were incredibly impressive and present upside, despite the small sample size.