4 Tight Ends Who Had Outlier Touchdown Seasons in 2021

Jun 29, 2022

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In the final article of this four-part series, I will discuss tight ends that outperformed their volume in 2021, as it pertained to touchdowns, as well as those that failed to turn ample opportunity into winning fantasy production. The basis for this analysis is touchdown expectation. For each position, I evaluated touchdown rates from various points on the field and calculated expected scoring for every player in the league. A full rundown of the methodology can be found in the quarterback article of this series.

More 2021 Touchdown Outliers: QB | RB | WR

The following table outlines scoring rates for tight end targets from each line of scrimmage:

TE TD Rates Based on Field Position, 2019–2021
Line Of Scrimmage	Touchdown Rate
1–49	0.2%
50–41	1.1%
40–31	1.9%
30–21	6.3%
20–16	12.2%
15–11	18.3%
10–6	31.2%
5–1	54.6%

Since expanding this research in 2019, 11 tight ends have scored at least one full touchdown below expectation—nine players in that group saw their touchdown numbers increase the following year by a total average of 2.7 scores. Of the 11 tight ends that scored at least one touchdown over expectation, seven had fewer touchdowns last year and the sample saw their total drop by an average of two scores.

After calculating each tight end’s touchdown expectation (minimum 40 targets) and comparing that number to the actual touchdowns that they generated, we can get an idea of which tight ends scored more or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential studs or duds in 2022.