Injury Profile: Travis Etienne's NFL Premiere
Edited on 8/28/22
My wife and I enjoy getting into different TV shows. During peak COVID, we spent most nights isolated indoors and stumbled upon a show on Amazon Prime called Utopia. The show's premise was not too different from what was going on in the world in 2020. It takes place in the current day where there is a viral outbreak in America. A medical organization mass produces a vaccine with the intent of harming people. A group of teens discover this organization's true purpose and attempt to stop them. It’s a well-made, dark show with a lot of twists and turns. Recently I was disappointed to learn that Amazon elected to cancel the show after only one season. And just like that, before it even started, Utopia was finished.
You likely experienced a similar feeling if you drafted Travis Etienne last season. A brief glimpse of his potential and then just like that… over.
Unlike Utopia, Travis Etienne will return. But can you count on him in 2022? There are several reasons suggesting you can
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Lisfranc Injury
During Jacksonville's preseason game versus the New Orleans Saints, Travis Etienne sustained a left foot injury. Afterward, he was diagnosed with the dreaded Lisfranc sprain that required surgery to repair and ended his 2021 season.
There are different classifications for a Lisfranc injury, but for fantasy football purposes it is not important to know all of them. Lisfranc injuries make the foot unstable. Accelerating, pushing off, or trying to change direction on the injured foot is not possible and often painful. Even after surgery the player sometimes does not regain the stability in the foot. Long-term, it can zap the player of their burst and quickness. For this reason, Lisfranc injuries have historically been difficult to return from and hampered production.
Research shows that players experience a 21% decline in production the year after a Lisfranc injury compared to their pre-injury levels. Travis Etienne doubters love to pull up this statistic. However, Etienne did not play in 2021. So there is no way to quantify his production dropoff. The data supporting a drop in production following Lisfranc injury is dated. Here are the most recent examples of skill position players' numbers the year after a Lisfranc injury vs. their career stats. In both instances, fantasy points per game were below the 21% that is typical following Lisfranc injuries.
| Player | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Fantasy Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | -12.5% | -11.3% | -38.3% | -34.3% | -19.2% |
| Evan Engram | +11.1% | +36.3% | +26.0% | +20.2% | -14.4% |
A typical return to play timeline following surgery to correct a Lisfranc injury is 8–12 months. Etienne meets the criteria considering that he missed all of the 2021 season. Although it was unfortunate that we never saw him play, sitting out all of last season bodes well for 2022.
Jaguars’ Offseason
With a full year to recover, I am optimistic Etienne can be productive in 2022. My optimism was further strengthened by how Jacksonville handled their RB depth this offseason.
Updated on 8/28/22
If you remember, James Robinson also was injured late last season, tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 16. Although Los Angeles Rams’ RB Cam Akers was able to return from tearing his Achilles in under six months, this recovery should be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the standard. Athletes typically require 9–12 months before they are able to return. Assuming his surgery was shortly after his injury, NFL training camp would be seven months post-op. Week 1 of the NFL season would be a little over eight months. Although there are promising reports regarding Robinson’s progress he still has a ways to go even though it is looking like he will miss the PUP to start the 2022 season. Should Robinson be ready, it's possible he looks like a shell of himself. The statistics for RBs following an Achilles tear are brutal. Even when Cam Akers did return late in the 2021 season, he averaged 14 carries per game, a measly 2.2 yards per carry, with minimal involvement in the passing game.
Heading into the offseason never seeing Etienne take a snap and uncertainty about Robinson's abiliites post-injury, Jacksonville did not even flinch. They did not add any RBs in free agency and made a minimal investment drafting Snoop Conner in the fifth round. This speaks volumes about the confidence they have in Etienne’s recovery and his ability to operate as the primary back.
Etienne Reports
There have been nothing but glowing reports surrounding Etienne. He put on a show for reporters during OTAs and this should continue when the Jaguars start training camp. Every early indication is that Etienne is not limited by his Lisfranc injury at all. Missing all of last season gave Etienne plenty of time to heal and now he is full go.
Back for everything 😤@Dream_Finders | @swaggy_t1 pic.twitter.com/7MvwAx5rwL
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) June 7, 2022
From what I have seen on social media Travis Etienne looks like the explosive player he was at Clemson. These videos don’t tell us everything but they offer a glimpse of how Etienne looks. Etienne is not favoring his left foot/ankle. He shows burst and acceleration and looks comfortable as a receiver. Training camp and preseason games will cement Etienne’s readiness for the NFL season, but for right now it looks very promising.
I thought this training from Travis Etienne was a great example of:
Change of direction (COD)
vs.
Agility
Some solid force application, speed of movement etc, but not something you should consider agility (some do)
If it’s rehearsed, planned or pre-determined, it’s COD pic.twitter.com/rKTGMEEwL3
— Gerry DeFilippo (@Challenger_ST) June 29, 2022
The Bottom Line
- Lisfranc traditionally have limited RBs’ production the year after surgery however much of his data is dated. There are some recent examples of skill position players having success after this injury.
- Travis Etienne has had a full year to recover from the injury and signs point to him being ready for a primary RB workload.
- Based on the Jacksonville offseason moves and with James Robinson recovering from an Achilles tendon rupture himself, there is a scenario where Etienne leads the Jaguars’ backfield in touches.
