Kareem Hunt: The Forgotten Man in Fantasy Football

Since teaming up with the Cleveland Browns in 2019, all Kareem Hunt has done is produce. Just two years removed from finishing as the RB10—while sharing the backfield with teammate Nick Chubb—it feels as though the fantasy football community is wrongfully writing him off.

After a series of injuries derailed Hunt’s 2021 campaign, forcing him to miss nine games, he has been flying too far under the radar. Currently being drafted as the RB31 (94.5 overall) according to Underdog Fantasy, Hunt has league-winning potential written all over him. He is being drafted behind guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Damien Harris, and Rashaad Penny, all of who have yet to produce consistently or have their ceilings capped by the lack of a receiving role.

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Cleveland is Going to Run in 2022

Cleveland was all about the ground game last season. Ranking ninth in rushing attempts, fourth in rushing yards, and seventh in rushing touchdowns, we can expect more of the same for the 2022 season. Yes, Cleveland did sign elite quarterback Deshaun Watson to a massive contract. However, as the season approaches, it is expected he will receive some sort of suspension. This leaves Jacoby Brissett as the next man up under center.

In his five starts with the Miami Dolphins in 2021, Brissett was the QB20 during this stretch, throwing just five touchdowns to his four interceptions. Projected to have a top-tier offensive line, Cleveland is going to want to keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock running—4for4 currently projects Cleveland for the fourth-most rush attempts this season. There are going to be plenty of opportunities for Hunt to take advantage of.

But What About Nick Chubb?

Let’s address the elephant in the room. Nick Chubb is still there and one of the best pure runners in the game. Won’t this restrict Hunt from being able to produce consistent fantasy points? Won’t Chubb have to miss time for Hunt to really jump into that next tier of running backs? No.

Using 4for4’s Market Share Splits App, let’s take a closer look at Hunt’s production while sharing time with Chubb versus Chubb missing the game:

^{‘In Mean’ refers to with Chubb while ‘Ex Mean’ refers to without Chubb}

While Hunt’s rushing attempts and yards are higher without Chubb, he’s more efficient when Chubb is active. Averaging more yards per rush, Chubb playing may benefit Hunt in the sense that defenses incorrectly anticipate a passing play when Hunt is in the game. This opens some running lanes, resulting in bigger chunks for Hunt.

Additionally, all of Hunt’s receiving numbers are better when Chubb plays, averaging more targets, receptions, and receiving yards, Hunt keeps his production raised with his receiving ability. Even though he sees a reduction in touches playing with Chubb, he still manages to put up identical fantasy points.

Using 4for4's running back projections, Hunt is ranked as the RB34. This suggests that his ADP is a fair value but, as laid out here, his range of outcomes shows an ability to easily outperform that ranking. Being drafted as a backend RB3, I would be more than happy to have him as my second running back in a WR-heavy build.

Bottom Line

• Just last season Kareem Hunt was the RB8 from Weeks 1-6, averaging just a 49% snap share.
• With a top offensive line, Cleveland is poised to have another run-heavy season while Watson serves his incoming suspension.
• Hunt produces just as good of numbers with Chubb on the field as without him.
• Hunt is being drafted as the RB31 on Underdog and could easily outperform this ADP, propelling him into league-winning territory.
• If Chubb were to miss any time, Hunt would see a massive increase in touches, giving him weekly RB1 status.