SharpClarke's Best Week 5 NFL Bet: ATL @ TB Matchup Spotlight

In last week's free matchup spotlight, I predicted the Cardinals would beat the Panthers 27-17. I was a little off, because the Cardinals only won 26-16. But if you followed the bets, you managed to win, including an alternate spread -9.5 (+320). I'll see if I can sharpen up and predict the exact score this week, as I dive into the matchup between the upstart 2-2 Atlanta Falcons and the beleaguered 2-2 Tampa Bay Bucs. It's a great illustration of the principle that records do not dictate the quality of teams, because the sportsbooks set the Bucs initially as 8- or 8.5-point favorites and that has been bet up to the border between 9.5 and 10. The Falcons have rewarded bettors this season, as they are undefeated against the spread after four games. But on the other side, Tom Brady has been cashing tickets for bettors for decades. Let's dive in.

My Numbers

Atlanta: 30th (Offense: 22nd, Defense: 32nd)
Tampa Bay 3rd (Offense: 6th, Defense: 2nd)
Baseline: TB -11.5, -488 Moneyline

Matchup Breakdown

ATL Offense vs. TB Defense

We saw what the Falcons want to do last week in their win over Cleveland. Arthur Smith loves scheming up fancy run plays, and he's good at it. On one 10-play scoring drive, the Falcons didn't call a single pass play. This approach has led to narrow victories over the Seahawks and Browns. But the Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing the Lions to score 45 points without three of their top playmakers. And the Browns were playing without the only good players on their defensive line. This week will be a sharp change of pace for this offense.

The Bucs have traditionally excelled against the run with a strong defensive front and blitzes that lead to a lot of tackles in the backfield. Marcus Mariota has acquitted himself well in Atlanta, legitimately exceeding expectations with his level of play. But he can only do so much against a strong defense behind an offensive line that won't protect him well, particularly if they are unable to get much going on the ground. We saw this play out last year when an impressive Jalen Hurts took the Eagles into the playoffs. The Bucs simply shut down the run and forced them to be one-dimensional. They weren't built for it, and neither are these Falcons. If the Bucs build a lead and take the run game off the table, it will only get more difficult for the Falcons.

TB Offense vs. ATL Defense

I came into the season much lower on Tampa Bay than the market. I anticipated that their offensive line injuries and wide receiver injuries would cause Tom Brady to have a down year. They started the season with arguably the toughest four-game stretch in the NFL, going against the Cowboys (with Dak Prescott), Saints, Packers, and Chiefs. They did this while navigating an additional (temporary) offensive lineman injury and a revolving door of healthy receivers that really left Brady with no weapons. As a result, they have leaned on the ground game. It hasn't been pretty, in part because of the strength of their opponents and in part because their offensive line has struggled. But as the pieces around Brady have gotten healthier, they have reverted increasingly to their aggressive pass-heavy approach from previous years. I think this change is permanent and I expect an aggressive offense against Atlanta.

That's bad news because the Bucs should be able to do whatever they want against my bottom-ranked defense. The Falcons don't get home with the pass rush and I expect that the Bucs will even get Fournette going. The only strength on this Falcons defensive unit is at cornerback, but the Bucs are great at isolating players using screens and clear-outs, and Brady is great at throwing into spots in coverage. This essentially negates the Falcons' biggest advantage. I expect Brady to be fired up and focused against a bad defense with his weapons finally healthy. This should lead to a bombardment of points, particularly in the first half. He also is an expert at capitalizing inside the two-minute mark of the half, which is very helpful in building an early lead. I expect one of the top performances of the year so far by the Bucs' offense.

See the rest of SharpClarke's Week 5 Betting Card

Prediction

Brady orchestrates a methodical offense with a quick pace, setting up some explosive plays and touchdowns in the first half. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs score on every possession in the first half. Meanwhile, the Falcons move the ball with inconsistency and struggle in the red zone without Cordarelle Patterson. The Bucs build a 20-point first-half lead and cruise to an easy victory.

Final Score Prediction: TB 41-17

Market Evaluation

This market opened around TB -8 or TB -8.5, and the books have slowly increased the tax on the Bucs as the week has progressed. This shows that respected bettors are backing the Bucs and that books do not want overly lopsided action on them, even at this big spread. I bet on the Bucs earlier this week, anticipating this movement. So the market has confirmed my view of the game. I am comfortable being on the "popular" side of this bet because I think it's the right side based on my matchups and the numbers.

Best Bets

When I bet this game and gave it out on the 4for4 Discord to subscribers, the line was TB -8.5. Unfortunately, those have all disappeared from the marketplace. But I start writing this article on Thursday and had planned on making TB -8.5 the best bet. Still, several books are offering TB -9.5, which is only marginally less valuable. I would hop on quickly because I expect the game to close at a flat TB -10.

TB -9.5 (-107) (PointsBet), TB -9.5 (-110) (BetMGM, Circa, etc.)

TB First Half -5.5 (-110) (BetMGM)

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