Week 11 Thursday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 17, 2022

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Titans at Packers

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Two quarterbacks that have fallen off the fantasy-relevant cliff face off in the lid lifter for Week 11 when the Tennessee Titans travel north to face the Green Bay Packers.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

It is not just about finishing in first place in Showdown, it is about finishing in solo first. This format is one of the easiest to chop top prize because of the smaller player pool. Therefore, being different (and correct) in roster construction is the difference between doubling your entry cost and taking down a GPP. Let’s take a look at this week’s important notes and players I am focusing on when building for Showdown formats on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Vegas Total and Spread

Green Bay is a 3.5-point home favorite with an over/under of 41 points. The Packers have an implied team total of 22.25 points, while the Titans have an implied team total of 18.75 points.

Potential Gameflow Scenarios

Before talking about the mediocrity that is the Titans and Packers, it is important to note that it is going to be below freezing at kickoff. The high in Green Bay is 29 degrees with winds expected to be around 10 mph during the game. That is not enough to change multiple factors in a game like fantasy players expect when they see double-digit winds, but add it to the temperature and you can expect to see players make business decisions during the game.

The Packers have to be excited after Week 10’s win because it keeps their season alive, but also included a breakout performance from rookie wide receiver Christian Watson ($10,500 FD/$7,400 DK). His emergence and the potential return of Randall Cobb ($7,500 FD/$200 DK) could be the boon the Packers passing attack has been searching for since trading Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers ($15,000 FD/$10,400 DK) is a shell of himself, especially when you consider he is the reigning NFL MVP. Having multiple trustworthy wideouts, Robert Tonyan ($7,000 FD/$5,800 DK) as a trustworthy target, and Aaron Jones ($14,500 FD/$11,200 DK) as one of the best all-around running backs in the league, Rodgers may be closer to a top-10 QB than the cooked goose he has been as the current QB14. He should be able to pick and choose his targets against a bottom-10 defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) in total offense allowed.

Mason Crosby ($8,500 FD/$4,000 DK) has had a sore back the past few weeks and has relinquished kickoff duties to Ramiz Ahmed ($4,000 DK). That’s enough to pay attention to with the below-freezing temperature.

The Titans offense is Derrick Henry ($17,000 FD/$11,600 DK). It just so happens that the Packers defense ($9,000 FD/$3,800 DK) is a run funnel, ranking 17th in RB aFPA and 12th or better against every other position. Green Bay knows that they have to stop Henry to eradicate the Titans offense, but can they? Remember, cold weather is not fun to try to tackle a player of Henry’s size. A welcomed addition to the Titans offense was the return of rookie WR Treylon Burks ($8,000 FD/$5,200 DK) in Week 10. Burks saw an 18.75% target share in his first game since Week 4. His return means the Titans WR is at its best in at least a month and gives the Packers another talent to pay attention to. There is an argument that Burks is the second-most talented offensive skill player on the Titans.

Here are players to target based on various game flow scenarios:

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring games

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Aaron Jones ($14,500 FD/$11,200 DK)/Treylon Burks ($8,000 FD/$5,200 DK)/Austin Hooper ($7,500 FD/$4,600 DK)

Aaron Jones will play in all game scenarios and can score in flurries. Pairing him with arguably the best receiver and recent target hog from the Titans helps cover close and blowout games, as well as a Packers win and blowout, and the least likely scenario of a Titans win and check-down work from Jones.

Low-Priced Volatile Players

Chig Okonkwo ($6,500 FD/$2,600 DK)

Okonkwo’s raw talent is difficult to miss but he has been a project since being drafted by Tennessee. After only seeing six targets in the first seven games, Okonkwo has seven in the past three. He is a mismatch for the majority of defensive players and can likely pay off his salary.

Randall Cobb ($7,500 FD/$200 DK)

Cobb’s potential activation would flip this slate on its head. He would automatically slot into…the slot WR role with only Samori Toure a threat for playing time behind him.

Sammy Watkins ($7,500 FD/$4,800 DK) and Samori Toure ($6,500 FD/$1,200 DK)

Watkins played eight more snaps than Toure in their Week 10 win, one week after Toure finished a two-game stretch with at least 34 receiving yards. Both have awful floors, but it is known that Watkins can still make splash plays, while Toure similarly stretches the field and has a lot less known about him as a consistent option.

Robert Tonyan ($7,000 FD/$5,800 DK)

His FanDuel price properly reflects his down season, but Tonyan may be the most trusted Packer receiver not named Randall Cobb. Tonyan is a FD-first option as a salary saver that shows up three times in the 4for4 FanDuel Showdown Generator’s top 10 lineups (all players selected as FLEX options).

Dontrell Hilliard ($7,000 DK/$3,200 DK)

His lack of receiving work the past three weeks is concerning, especially with Henry not seeing an increase in passing work during that time. Hilliard could be an afterthought with a closer spread and over/under.

Titans Defense ($9,500 FD/$4,400 DK)

There are numerous defensive players questionable, but that does not concern me as much as David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins’ balky knees and no practice on a short week. Both are questionable, but expected to play. If Jeffrey Simmons and Elijah Molden play for the Titans, I will be upping my exposure to their defense.

Captain/MVP Picks

Aaron Jones ($14,500 FD/$16,800 DK)

The lack of touchdowns is a bummer, but his usage is elite and is a priority in the Packers offense. The running lanes may be fewer and smaller against a pass funnel defense, but no team allows more targets per game to RBs than the Titans, and only the Chiefs allow more receptions.

Derrick Henry ($17,000 FD/$17,400 DK)

The Packers have allowed three 100-yard rushers this season. All three occurrences were at home. The rushing volume alone makes Henry the overwhelming favorite to be the highest rostered CPT/MVP pick, a number that could push 30 carries, short week be damned.

Aaron Rodgers ($15,000 FD/$15,600 DK)

The inconsistency at WR has made rostering Rodgers difficult in all fantasy formats. A return from Cobb and positive steps from Christian Watson would make the ayahuasca enjoyer a lot more palatable at CPT/MVP.

Allen Lazard ($11,000 FD/$11,100 DK)

Lazard’s ownership should not dip with DFS players sharper to dismiss one-week blips like we saw from Watson Week 10. Lazard has an acceptable price gap from Watson on DK but is only $500 more on FD. Lazard is a top MVP option on FanDuel and a contrarian one at that.

Austin Hooper ($8,000 FD/$6,900 DK)

Hooper is a Hail Mary CPT/MVP because he has disappeared for large stretches of this season. What is encouraging is his usage and fantasy production with every top passing game option together in Week 10. Only one player had more targets than Hooper, and in a negative game script, his targets could remain near 10. The Packers are without LB De’Vondre Campbell in Week 11 and have been cycling two notably worse players in his stead.