Week 12 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Nov 23, 2022

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Justin Fields (shoulder) may miss some time. Kyle Pitts has an MCL tear and will miss at least four games. Wan’Dale Robinson (ACL tear) is done for the year. Joe Mixon and Matthew Stafford are dealing with concussions. Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Mike Williams (high-ankle sprain), and Rondale Moore (hamstring) are dealing with various injuries.

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

Below is a list of players who are ranked higher than usual due to injuries, depth chart changes, or favorable matchups. As the bye weeks hit, it’s important to be able to find players who can produce.

I’ll put the matchup along with our signature strength-of-schedule metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA), in parenthesis. The higher the number, the better the matchup.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (vs. BAL, 16)

Lawrence has rushed for at least 15 yards and/or a touchdown in six straight games. His passing production has been spotty, but in his last four neutral or good matchups, he has scored 21.0, 16.7, 18.7, and 24.9 fantasy points. The Ravens are a neutral matchup (No. 16 in QB aFPA), and Lawrence has two more great matchups against Detroit and Tennessee coming up.

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders (vs. ATL, 27)

Heinicke has failed to score a touchdown in the last couple of games, but both were tough matchups, aFPA-wise. He accounted for two touchdowns in each of the three previous games. The Falcons have yielded an average of 277/1.45 to the position this season.