Week 14 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 13 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 14.

Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening—after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 12 lookahead line, with the spread listed based on the home team:

Week 14 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

• I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. These things are mostly already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
• Bye weeks: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, Commanders

Raiders @ Rams (+5.5)

I didn't expect to see the Raiders as a near-touchdown road favorite at this point in the season, but this iteration of the Rams resembles what we saw in August during preseason games. In addition, this is a de-facto home game for the Raiders, who called Los Angeles home for 12 years and still have a rabid fanbase in Southern California. The Rams are in tank mode, only they don't have the draft capital to benefit from it. Wild times.

Jets @ Bills (-9.5)

One of Week 9's biggest surprises came when the Jets slowed Josh Allen and the Bills' offense, knocking them off 20-17. This Mike White-led unit is clearly an upgrade from what the Jets were getting with Zach Wilson under center. White's ability to make the easy stuff look easy, as his coaches called out in the post-game presser after this Week 12 win against Chicago, adds a floor to this offense that's been missing previously. A win on the road in Minnesota in Week 13 would definitely impact this line, moving it closer to -7. If you have a lean, act accordingly.

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Vikings @ Lions (+3)

With both of these NFC North clubs set to face off in coin-flip Week 13 matchups, we'll likely see those results impact this line when it re-opens. A Detroit win against Jacksonville, paired with a Vikings loss to the Jets, would have this much closer to a pick'em come Sunday night. Also, a dominant performance from Minnesota in Week 13 against the Jets could move this line through the -3, which is a key number.

Eagles @ Giants (+6)

If the season ended today, the Giants would be in the playoffs. Also, if the season ended today, that would be weird because it's Thursday, and it's only Week 14. But you get my point.

The Giants are a tall Jenga tower 15 rounds into the game. No one understands how it's still standing, and it's only a matter of time until it all comes crumbling down. The injuries are insurmountable at this point, and the Cowboys are too close to Philadelphia's heels to get caught sleeping here. I like the Eagles anywhere under -7.

Chiefs @ Broncos (+7.5)

The Denver offense has been perhaps the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season. The defense has remained excellent, but no one anticipated a historically inept offense after they mortgaged the future for Russell Wilson. Perhaps the December weather of Denver can act as an equalizer; otherwise, the Broncos don't have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs.

Dolphins @ Chargers (+1.5)

Even with a Miami win in San Francisco in Week 13, I don't envision a scenario where this climbs out to or past -3 for the Dolphins, but if you initially like the Chargers here, taking these points, or backing them on the Moneyline at plus-odds, is likely a good look. If Miami struggles against the 49ers and the Chargers convincingly handle the Raiders this week, the Chargers will open up as a slight favorite in this spot.

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