Week 14 Fantasy Football Busts: 4 Players to Avoid

Dec 07, 2022

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

We’ve only got a few weeks left in the fantasy season. But, with the fantasy playoffs starting soon, our roster decisions become all the more important. Sure, we need big performances, but we can’t take on too many duds in our lineups, either. To help, I’ve found four players in less-than-ideal situations in Week 14. If possible, I’d avoid or plan around them if you’re trying to make a playoff push.

Quarterback

Tom Brady (Buccaneers) @ 49ers

Yay. Tom Brady did it again. He stormed back from a multi-score deficit in the fourth quarter to beat a divisional rival and secure Tampa Bay’s spot for another playoff run. His gumption and cold-blooded demeanor are the only reason the Buccaneers had a shot. Disregard (injured) Mark Ingram coming up short on second down and the resulting punt from Tampa’s 44-yard line. Thinking a 98.7% win probability with seven minutes left is a good thing when Brady is on the other side is for suckers anyway. However, if I wanted to poke holes in Brady’s trip out west, I’d look at a few metrics for the future Hall of Famer.

Tom Brady completed 14 of his final 19 passes (+4.6% CPOE) after starting the game 22 for 35 (-7.4% CPOE).

Brady Time to Throw (Week 13):

🔹 First 9 Drives: 2.62 seconds

🔹 Last 2 Drives: 2.40 seconds#NOvsTB | #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/W690WLFWC7

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 6, 2022

Brady put on a vintage performance in the final six minutes of Monday night’s game. However, as Next Gen Stats points out, he was inaccurate and inefficient over the previous 54. John Wolford (-0.14) and Mike White (-0.13) had a higher EPA per attempt than Brady (-0.16) through the first three quarters. He’s 18th in CPOE, but his on-target rate plummets to 62.1% under pressure. For reference, Russell Wilson’s is 63.3%. Tampa is already 18th in offensive yards per drive and about to face a defense giving up the fifth-fewest yards to opposing teams.

San Francisco (14.6 aFPA, 10th) just ran the Dolphins out of town after three turnovers and a defensive score. I’ll properly contextualize the loss for Miami fans by adding in the absence of their two starting tackles. But the Buccaneers’ line isn’t in much better shape. They’re 27th in pass-block win rate, and Tampa doesn’t have the same speed on offense to create explosives. Brady is an easy fade this week, but let’s revisit his prospects in Week 15 against Cincinnati.