O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 16

Dec 21, 2022

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Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's note: Check out the complete set of Week 16 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Packers @ Dolphins

Life continues to roll on for the Packers' offensive line sans David Bakhtiari, as fourth-round rookie Zach Tom has held up admirably in the oft-injured veteran's place. Tom has allowed only two pressures in his last two starts at left tackle and only has six of them across 204 pass-blocking snaps at both tackle and left guard, likely solidifying his place as a starter somewhere along the line in 2023. This consistent o-line —that hasn’t fallen out of my top-10 all season regardless of Bakhtiari’s status— will now take on a Dolphins defense that has consistently been vulnerable through the air, ranking 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position and 31st in aFPA to the tight end position, which could finally lead to a decent game for Robert Tonyan.

Aaron Rodgers makes for a high-floor back-end QB1 this week, and even with Christian Watson’s gaffe near the end of Monday Night Football, he should be a great WR2, as I’m sure Rodgers gave him a stern post-game talking-to.

Buccaneers @ Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the most susceptible defenses in the NFL. It’s because they can’t stop the passing game, and opposing offenses are well aware. Ranking dead last in both points allowed per game and points allowed per drive, offenses have the second-highest pass rate over expectation while playing the Cardinals, and as the Buccaneers' offense ranks seventh in PROE, so we shouldn’t expect things to change in Week 16. The Bucs —who currently rank first in the NFL with their 3.4% adjusted sack rate— should hold up just fine against the Arizona pass rush, even when we consider J.J. Watt’s out-of-nowhere three-sack, five-pressure performance against the Broncos last week.

Tom Brady has shown his age at times through the 2022 campaign, but he has often gotten the points we crave in fantasy by sheer volume alone, throwing 40 or more passes in 11-of-14 games, creating a more than acceptable fantasy floor for Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and, to a lesser extent, the tight end position. Outside of the obvious plays, Cade Otton should be considered for those desperate for TE production, as the Cardinals allow a league-high 80.5% completion rate and 129.5 QB rating when the tight end is targeted, resulting in 71.6 yards per game (31st) to the position, creating a floor for a bounce-back Otton performance.

Ravens vs. Falcons

It’ll be difficult to harvest fantasy value from a Ravens passing offense if Lamar Jackson ends up being a game-time decision, as things are currently trending, but that could create some sneaky value plays in what should be a juicy matchup. The Falcons' pass rush currently ranks 31st in pressure rate (26.3%), while the second level isn’t holding up their end of the bargain either, as the team also ranks 31st in Sports Info Solutions’ broken-plus-missed tackle rate (17.2%).

Of course, Baltimore managed to score only three points last week with Tyler Huntley at the helm, but you would be incorrect in assuming that Myles Garrett and the Browns' defensive front had much to do with it; the offensive line allowed only seven pressures, zero sacks, and their running backs averaged a whopping 8.3 yards per attempt. Even if Huntley gets the nod again, we can expect a little bit of positive regression in the yards after catch column, making Mark Andrews a must-start and Demarcus Robinson a Flex option with the potential to break one off. Each of their floors will be boosted immensely if Lamar gets cleared ahead of the weekend.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Texans @ Titans

In a game that most expected to be a rollover spot for the Texans' defense, the Chiefs had a much more difficult task than expected in Week 15. Though Kansas City scored 30 points, that certainly doesn’t tell the whole story of a defense that pressured Patrick Mahomes 23 times and sacked him on three of those plays. Things could look similar this week as they face a Tennessee Titans offensive line that ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate (9.7%) and 27th in pressure rate allowed.

What further exacerbates things is Ryan Tannehill’s position on the injury report, which indicates that Week 16’s Tennessee starter will be Malik Willis. Willis is an intriguing prospect in both fantasy and real-life circles, but he has been susceptible as a passer in his spots through this season; in his 51 dropbacks, he has completed only 44.7% of his passes for 177 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and six sacks taken.

Broncos @ Rams

There have been low lows for the Rams' offensive line, and though they have been playing better, you wouldn’t know it by looking at the team’s boxscores. The feel-good Baker Mayfield revival story took a predictable turn on Monday Night Football: the quarterback threw for 111 yards with 5.3 yards per attempt and a dink-and-dunk 5.0 average depth of target. This performance came as the offensive line had one of its best performances of the year, allowing a pressure rate of 18.5%, which was a stark contrast from the 32.6% pressure rate they’ve allowed on the year as a whole.

That pressure rate could be in for some regression against a Broncos team that looks to be returning Randy Gregory back into his typical full-time role. Gregory spends the majority of his time lined up across from the right tackle, which will put him across from Rob Havenstein, who is having an off year after back-to-back fantastic seasons. The Broncos have one of the highest floors of any D/ST playing in Week 16.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Chiefs vs. Seahawks

This is the purest case of strength-on-weakness that we have in Week 16, and there’s no reason to overthink it. According to 4for4’s Team Stat Explorer, the Seahawks have been getting trounced on the ground since coming out of their Week 11 bye, ranking bottom-three in explosive rush% (29th), rushing EPA per play (31st), and rushing yards per game (32nd). These aren’t all just explosive plays either, as they rank 29th in SIS’ stuff% over that span, as well.

Simply put, the Chiefs' o-line ranks third in adjusted line yards (4.82), and you need to be starting Jerick McKinnon.

Lions @ Panthers

The Carolina Panthers defensive front has been a bit of a rollercoaster throughout the season, as evidenced by how they stymied the Seahawks in Week 14 (nine rushes, 26 yards) and the Buccaneers in Week 7 (Leonard Fournette, eight rushes, 19 yards) yet allowed Joe Mixon to make his best LaDainian Tomlinson impression in Week 9 (22 rushes, 153 yards, four touchdowns). On the other hand, Detroit has been very consistent concerning its output at the running back position. However, it has sometimes been tough to predict, with D’Andre Swift dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries throughout the season.

Things have been more fantasy-friendly as of late, as Swift has settled into a nice pass-catching role that gives him a decent floor, and Jamaal Williams has been an absolute bull in the red zone, racking up 14 touchdowns to date. Given that the Panthers have allowed 16 touchdowns in the ground game this season (25th), we should have a good enough floor to consider each of Swift and Williams an RB2 in Week 16.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: