Trevor Lawrence Continues to Improve at the Perfect Time

The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the first two months of the year looking like it was recovering from a hangover from the Urban Meyer experience, wrapping up the month of October with a 2-6 record. There were highs (beating the Chargers 38-10), but it was mostly lows, such as getting skunked by the Houston Texans 13-6 in Week 5, a win that remains the only Texans victory on the season.

Since the calendar turned over to November, though, the team has won four-of-six, and the stats tell a story of a completely different offense. Since Week 9, the Jaguars rank third in passing yards per game, third in EPA per pass play, fifth in total yards per game, and seventh in explosive pass%. The team has put itself on the shoulders of QB Trevor Lawrence and it's working so well that the team has a real shot at 2022 AFC playoff bid.

So, What Changed?

Many times when we see this big of a swing for an offense, it's easy to assume that the schedule lightened up for Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but that doesn't seem to fit in this situation. In fact, They have faced some of the more difficult defenses in the league as of late. Here are how opposing defenses have ranked across the NFL in EPA per play allowed since Week 9, the week that the offense seemed to have turned things around: 19th (Raiders), 15th (Chiefs), 5th (Ravens), 13th (Lions), 25th (Titans), Cowboys (4th). Against the two most formidable defenses, Baltimore and Dallas, the Jaguars put up 68 points and 835 total yards.

The tall and short of it is; it looks like Lawrence is reading defenses better and has been much better while creating out-of-structure. Through the first eight weeks of the season, he ranked 20th in quarterback rating (71.1) while outside of the pocket, leading the league with four interceptions in that scenario. In the six games since, he is fifth in QBR (116.0) and has yet to throw a pick outside the pocket's safeguard. This isn't because he has stopped testing the defense deep either, as Lawrence's splits with attempts per game traveling 15+ air yards down the field (6.1-to-6.6) and intended air yards per game on those throws (145.8-to-145.3) are nearly identical; he's just operating more efficiently.

A Rematch with the Jets

Two 2021 rookies will face off on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 16, and they couldn't be heading in more of an opposite direction. This will be the Jags and Jets' second meeting since they drafted their respective quarterbacks, and though New York took home the win that day, Zach Wilson threw for only 102 yards, a number that the former Clemson quarterback has bested in all 31 of his professional starts.

The Jets defense can be formidable at times, but head coach Doug Pederson has his offensive gameplan rolling, and there should be plenty of meat on the bone for fantasy purposes throughout the Jacksonville roster. Starting with Lawrence himself, he has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games and should be considered a fringe QB1/2 this week. Both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones should be stuck in fantasy lineups as WR2 options, and Evan Engram has to be started after he has exploded for 19 receptions, 224 yards, and two touchdowns over the last two games combined.

As for the running game, Travis Etienne needs to be in lineups as well; even if he doesn't get there in the rushing game, he has a great floor with his involvement as a receiver.

In the Jaguars' bid to make the playoffs, they should provide plenty of starters for fantasy teams trying to advance in their own.