NBA Player Prop Bets: Bam Adebayo Has Taken His Team Name Too Far

Jan 06, 2023

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Friday brings us a behemoth of an NBA slate, housing 11 games. With so many games and so many injury implications, there’s bound to be a lot of line movement, making early lines things you want to exploit. Below are my three favorite player props for tonight.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 truly makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not specifically paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 6, 2023)

Tobias Harris Over 16.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Joel Embiid has once again been ruled out for the Sixers after missing their last game. Luckily for bettors, this is a scenario we’ve seen enough over the last few seasons where we know which props to attack and which to avoid. That brings me to Tobias Harris, who’s simply priced too low in the market.

Last game without Embiid, Harris got off 18 shots and posted 19 points with a 21.1% usage rate. The efficiency left a lot to be desired, but the volume is incredibly encouraging. The last game marked the ninth time this season Harris has played sans Embiid, averaging 19.8 points per game with a 24% usage rate in 34.2 minutes per game. These numbers were nearly identical to what we saw in 11 games for Harris without Embiid last season, posting 19.9 points per game with a 27.6% usage rate in 33.2 minutes per game.

Obviously, the emergence of Tyrese Maxey instills more competition for volume, but the absence of Embiid opens up more than enough for Harris to thrive. He should see more time on the court as the alpha than he would with Embiid active, making a 16.5-point line against a middling Bulls defense an easy over we should attack.

Risk: 1.20 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.