NBA Player Prop Bets: Can Jokic Dominate Portland Again?

Jan 17, 2023

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The four-game slate on Tuesday marks our smallest slate in quite a while, but we have some marquee matchups that may be void of some stars, with Giannis Antetokounmpo already having been ruled out for the Bucks, as well as Paul George’s status in question for the Clippers. Regardless of what happens, my three favorite props are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 17, 2023)

Ben Simmons Over 7.5 Rebounds (-122 at PointsBet)

We attempted to bet this prop in the last Nets game which unfortunately took a turn, as Ben Simmons ended up being a late scratch and missed the game. He remains off the injury report on Tuesday and with Kyrie Irving now a mid-day downgrade, could be in line for a massive workload. Below is the analysis from the last article that applies perfectly here:

“Simmons posted nine rebounds last game with Kevin Durant sidelined, tying Nic Claxton for the team lead, while posting 14 rebounding chances. We’ve seen this consistent trend with Simmons when Durant is off the floor. He posts a 14.5% rebounding rate with Durant off the court this season, averaging 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.”

These rates would only increase in the absence of Irving, as we’d likely see Simmons get minutes both in the backcourt and frontcourt, making this a prop to target on the over.

Risk: 1.22 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit.