The Fantasy Football Impact of Jimmy Garoppolo to the Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72.75 million contract on Monday, March 13. Even in being guaranteed $45 million total, his contract can be viewed as a one-year ‘prove it’ deal since the organization can part ways for $9.2 million in savings towards the cap next year. It was also the first domino of many to fall in order for coach Josh McDaniels to push Jon Gruden’s core group of players (Derek Carr, Darren Waller) out for his own (Jakobi Meyers, Garoppolo).

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Jimmy Garoppolo’s 30s

San Francisco thought they had finally turned a corner under center ahead of the 2021 NFL draft by acquiring the No. 3 overall pick, which would eventually become Trey Lance, in exchange for the 2021 No. 12 overall pick, a 2022 first- and third-rounder, and one more first-round selection in 2023. Unfortunately, the team had no choice but to lean on Garoppolo for 804 dropbacks (to Lance’s 124) the last two years since the 22-year-old was a raw product — 306 collegiate dropbacks — out of North Dakota State and, on top of that, battled through injuries.

Garoppolo finished as the QB17 and QB20 in points per game in back-to-back years for it, carrying out Kyle Shanahan’s playbook for the league’s second- (8.6) and fourth-most (7.9) yards per attempt in that time.

How Jimmy Garoppolo Fits With The Raiders

Let’s be honest: this isn’t a question of whether Garoppolo himself moves the needle since he does not offer a rushing floor and suffers from a significant downgrade in his surrounding cast (pass-pro included) in moving from San Francisco to The Strip.

There is hope for regression in the team’s overall production, however, after the 2022 Raiders finished 26th in touchdown rate inside the red zone (48.9%) despite ranking top-10 in both yards and points per drive, the only offense to essentially move the ball with ease and consistently come up short.

As for Davante Adams’ ongoing ADP as the WR7 inside fantasy’s first 10 picks, note that Garoppolo did not finish outside the top-20 in completion rate 20 yards downfield (where Adams registered 28% of his receiving yards from Carr) over his last two seasons, but is arguably a wash in that department since Carr completed just 33.8% (29th) of said attempts last year.

Garoppolo’s sterling 64% completion rate to the intermediate level of the field, where Carr ranked 32nd (52%) under McDaniels, should be weighed heavier since that 10-19 yard range is where Adams was fed a career-high 30% of his targets in year one with the Raiders.

We should also expect more 11 personnel (three-wide sets) in 2023 following the addition of Meyers (and Waller’s departure) for $21 million guaranteed. McDaniels schemed a median rate (65.4%, 15th) of said personnel last year but a core trio of Adams, Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow logically guarantees a surge from league-average deployment to borderline kingdom with Garoppolo, who averaged the ninth-most YPA (7.7) from that package last season

The Bottom Line

• Jimmy Garoppolo practically signed a one-year 'prove it' deal since the organization can save $9.2 million against the cap by simply cutting him next year.
• Garoppolo finished as the QB17 and QB20 in points per game over the last two seasons and ranks as 4for4’s QB20 despite being drafted as the QB27 in ADP.
• Jakobi Meyers' arrival is no threat to Davante Adams' standing as a low-end WR1 since Garoppolo completed 64% of his passes (compared to Derek Carr's 52%) in the intermediate level of the field where Adams was sandwiched a career-high 30% of his targets in year one under Josh McDaniels.
• The Raiders are expected to increase last year's lukewarm usage of 11 personnel (65.4%, 15th) given their core trio of Adams, Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. Garoppolo averaged the ninth-most YPA (7.7) from that package last season.