NBA Player Prop Bets: Bet On Harden To Keep Dropping Dimes

Apr 02, 2023

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After only a few games on Saturday and with no NBA games on Monday, the NBA has loaded up the Sunday slate with games stretching from early afternoon all throughout the evening. With so many playoff implications on the line and other teams shutting things down, it’s going to be a wild day in the prop market. My three favorite props for the slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (April 2, 2023)

James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (+106 at FanDuel)

As the old saying goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” and that’s exactly the mindset to have when looking at Harden’s assist prop on Sunday. Harden has been on another level when it comes to facilitation lately, posting at least 10 assists in nine of his last 10 games while also ranking second in the NBA across the entirety of the season in potential assists per game (17.4).

Harden has torched the Bucks this season, scoring 31 or more points in both games while averaging 9.5 assists to complement the scoring. Given the gravity of the matchup specific to playoff seeding, I would expect the Bucks (and Jrue Holiday, in particular) to put an emphasis on slowing Harden down. The poor individual matchup is a driving factor in betting his assists over, as we could see him defer to teammates more often.

This game is one of the few on the slate that should stay close throughout, and given the form Harden finds himself in and the pace of play at which the Bucks run, he should have all the opportunities in the world to hit this over.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.06 units.