2023 Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL Betting Odds and Offseason Notes
Sure, it's early, but sportsbooks are already giving us an early look at divisional betting odds and win totals, so we can't ignore them. The new league year has started, and free agent signings and subsequent roster moves have been rolling in non-stop over the past few weeks. We're unpacking the NFL Draft weekly on Move The Line, and we're still awaiting the schedule release, which should come in mid-May, though we do know who each team plays.
As of this writing, we have a partial picture of what's to come and how to handicap each division, but there are impactful data points still to come over the coming months. So with that said, let's look at each team's current status and how to bet on them.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Schedule Notes
All AFC North teams face the AFC South and NFC West this season, with their additional three games coming against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division (two in conference, one non-conference), which I'll list below.
2023 Divisional Odds: +575 (Caesars)
2023 Win Total: 8.5
2022 Record: 9-8
2022 Offensive EPA Rank: 14th
2022 Defensive EPA Rank: 23rd
Effective Cap Space (per OverTheCap.com): $5.4 million
First-Round Draft Pick: No. 17
Total Draft Picks: 7
3 Unique 2023 Opponents: New England, Green Bay, @ Las Vegas
The Steelers were underwhelming on both sides of the ball last season but somehow managed to go 7-2 on the back nine, ensuring that Mike Tomlin finished with a winning record (non-losing record) for the 17th consecutive season. Unfortunately, they're stuck in football purgatory right now. They're not good enough to win and not bad enough to bottom out and rebuild. The short and long-term future rests on the right shoulder of Kenny Pickett, and with three picks in the top 49 and four in the top 80, the Steelers should be able to address some of the remaining roster needs in this month's draft.
Free Agency Notes
The Steelers have added interior line help on both sides of the ball, resigning defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi and adding guards Issac Seumalo (Eagles) and Nate Herbig (Jets) along the offensive line. They've also brought Patrick Peterson (Vikings) and Keanu Neal (Buccaneers) in to bolster a thin secondary and revamped their linebacker room with Cole Holcomb (Commanders) and Elandon Roberts (Dolphins).
Remaining Roster Priorities
Even with the additions at guard, offensive tackle is a long-term need for the Steelers, though Chukwuma Okoroafor and Dan Moore might be good enough to run it back if April's draft board doesn't fall the Steelers' way. I believe that cornerback is a greater need with their first selection, given that the depth behind 33-year-old Patrick Peterson is questionable at best. The challenge there is the top two cornerbacks, Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez, are likely coming off the board inside the top 10, while the consensus next top cornerback, Joey Porter Jr., is gaining steam.
Now, this draft has cornerback depth, and the Steelers are positioned to benefit from anyone sliding out of the first round since they have the first pick of the second round, thanks to the Chase Claypool trade. Still, I'm sure they'll be delighted to land another Joey Porter if the board falls that way.
How To Bet On The Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a wait-and-see team for me right now. They're not contenders to win the AFC North, and while a full season of T.J. Watt can and will do wonders for their mediocre pass rush win rate last season, Watt isn't good enough to hide the current coverage holes in this secondary. With the four early picks, though, the Steelers are well-positioned to improve this roster, and if Kenny Pickett comes along for the ride, Mike Tomlin's streak of winning seasons likely continues.
