Alvin Kamara's Fantasy Outlook in 2023: Can He Overcome the Odds?

Alvin Kamara has an extreme uphill battle to fantasy success this season. His ADP has skyrocketed due to an upcoming legal battle and some off-season transactions from New Orleans. For years, Kamara typically wasn’t lasting to the 10th overall pick in fantasy drafts, however, since the beginning of June, his ADP has been just outside the top 100. The writing is on the wall for Kamara between the signing of Jamaal Williams and the draft pick of Kendre Miller. Assuming no suspension, can Kamara fend off his backfield mates and exceed expectations?

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Which Direction is Kamara Headed?

Let’s set aside the legal issues for a moment and take a look at who Kamara is as a player at this point in his career. We’ll split this up into both facets of his game.

In 2019, he boasted the highest broken tackle percentage of any running back with greater than 100 carries. Last year, he dropped out of the Top 30 in that category. Much of the allure of Kamara, or any stud running back for that matter, is volume. He was tied for 20th in carries inside the 10 last season. Which is great. The only issue? Kamara was tied with his teammate Latavius Murray. They were willing to split those valuable carries with a guy that wasn’t even on the active roster until October. Who’s to say they won’t be willing to give carries to Williams and his $8.15 million guaranteed or Miller who they just spent a third-round pick on?

His receiving prowess still appears to be present, which bodes well for him. Kamara was second in targets per game and fourth in targets per route run. In theory, Williams wouldn’t factor in too much in the passing game. He has had some spike target games, but he’s only eclipsed four targets in 15-of-90 (16.6%) games. Kendre Miller’s college career high in receptions was, checks notes… two. That’s not to say that he can’t catch passes but just that he wasn’t asked to do so in college.

If he avoids suspension, Kamara would likely retain most of his receiving work regardless of his contributions to the rushing attack. So, even if we agree that his rushing abilities have diminished, the real question becomes does it even matter?

Can Kamara Pay Off His ADP?

If we’re judging Kamara against his name and typical ADP, then of course he isn’t going to live up to expectations. Structurally, his ADP is in a range where many drafters are loading up on potential breakout candidates. I wouldn’t consider him a breakout candidate as he’s already broken out in his career quite a few times. But, his potential for high-value touches (targets, especially) makes him appealing here. This cohort has produced 200+ point performances before, but it's hard to predict that on a case-by-case basis. We may feel confident that it will happen for one of these backs in this range but it would be very optimistic to believe you can predict the exact player it will happen for.

Since 2017, running backs picked in this range have averaged 130 fantasy points with a standard deviation of about 68 fantasy points. That means we’d expect most of them to fall between 62 and 198 fantasy points. From a points/game perspective that average is a somewhat desperate flex option most weeks. Some running backs are completely useless in this portion of drafts. Trey Sermon (2021), Phillip Lindsay (2020), Eddie Lacy (2017), and Paul Perkins (2017) were duds in their respective draft classes.

If the bar we're hoping to hit is eight points per game like the average running back in this range, then sure that's a possibility. But the possibility of him hitting the upper range of outcomes seems low thanks to all of the risk that comes along with Kamara in 2023.

Bottom Line

Alvin Kamara is facing an uphill battle to fantasy success in 2023. He is facing:

• increased competition for touches from Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller
• a potential suspension due to off-field legal issues.

Kamara’s ADP has dropped to the lowest point of his career (101). At his current price, he seems a bit too risky given the alternatives that surround him on draft boards.