7 Wide Receivers Who Had Outlier Touchdown Seasons in 2022 - Fantasy Football Studs & Duds

Jul 13, 2023

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Each offseason, I uncover potential surprise touchdown scorers at wide receiver based on how players performed against scoring expectation the previous season. The full methodology can be found in the introduction to the quarterback article. The premise is straightforward—players who over-performed in the touchdown column could disappoint relative to inflated ADPs, and those that underperformed could have surprisingly big seasons if they realize their scoring equity.

More 2022 Touchdown Outliers: QB | RB | TE

Each position carries a different scoring expectation for every play type. The following table outlines scoring rates for wide receiver targets from various starting field positions:

WR TD Rates Based on Field Position, 2020–2022
Line Of Scrimmage	Touchdown Rate
1–49	0.8%
50–41	2.9%
40–31	3.4%
30–21	7.0%
20–16	11.8%
15–11	19.5%
10–6	31.0%
5–1	45.3%

This system has been especially useful in pinpointing yearly changes in wide receiver scoring. Since 2019, 44 wide receivers have scored at least two touchdowns over expectation and qualified for this study the following season—34 saw a drop in touchdowns the next year with an average decrease of 2.6 scores. Of the 30 wide receivers to score at least two scores below expectation, 17 increased their touchdowns the following season by an average of just under two scores with players such as Davante Adams in 2020 and Cooper Kupp in 2021 popping up as league-winners that we targeted.

After compiling every target for all wide receivers from last season (minimum 50 targets), I calculated each receiver’s touchdown expectation and compared that number to the actual touchdowns they generated. The differential in those numbers will serve as an indicator for wide receivers who scored more often or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential surprise studs or duds in 2023.