Fantasy Football Fallout: Cooper Kupp to the Seattle Seahawks
On Friday, March 14, it was announced that the Seattle Seahawks would be the team to land wide receiver Cooper Kupp, two days after he had been designated as a post-June-1 release by the Rams. Shortly after releasing Tyler Lockett and trading DK Metcalf, the 'Hawks locked up their former division rival on a three-year, $45 million contract — a significant pay cut from his previous contract in Los Angeles. He'll join Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a new-look offense with Sam Darnold at the helm, so let's break down the impact for all parties involved.
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Cooper Kupp's Wide Receiver Profile
Once the 69th overall pick out of Eastern Washington, Cooper Kupp was a prime example of the then-classic "third-year breakout" wide receiver. Following a decent rookie year in 2017 and an injury-shortened 2018, he exploded for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns on 94 catches playing alongside Robert Woods for the Jared-Goff-led Rams. He then regressed in the touchdown department in 2020 before posting the greatest wide receiver season in NFL history with Matthew Stafford in 2021: 145 catches, 1,947 yards, and 16 touchdowns for a record-setting 367 half-PPR fantasy points. The next-best single-season outputs by wideouts belong to Jerry Rice in 1995 (353 points), and Ja'Marr Chase (339.5), Randy Moss (336.3), and CeeDee Lamb (335.7), all well behind in their best seasons.
Unfortunately, in the three years since that historic Triple Crown season, Kupp has missed eight, five, and five games, respectively (18 total), and has consequently been unable to post even half his 2021 benchmarks in any of those years. He was on a torrid pace again in 2022 (leading all wideouts in half-PPR fantasy points per game) before suffering a high-ankle sprain that ended his season in Week 10. His yards per route run suffered a sharp decline the following season (from elite to above average) and his average yards after catch saw a sudden drop-off to 4.0 last season after hovering in the high fives his entire career. As a result, he plummeted from WR1 in half-PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 to a fringe WR2/WR3 the last two years.
| Year | G | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | YPRR | YAC/Rec | Half-PPR FP/G | FP/G Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15 | 124 | 92 | 974 | 3 | 1.89 | 5.8 | 10.9 | WR35 |
| 2021 | 17 | 191 | 145 | 1,947 | 3 | 3.12 | 5.9 | 21.6 | WR1 |
| 2022 | 9 | 98 | 75 | 812 | 6 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 18.2 | WR1 |
| 2023 | 12 | 95 | 59 | 737 | 5 | 1.86 | 5.6 | 11.2 | WR27 |
| 2024 | 12 | 100 | 67 | 710 | 6 | 1.99 | 4 | 11.8 | WR24 |
The biggest question with Kupp is why he's suffered back-to-back inefficient seasons these last two years after being the best wide receiver in fantasy the two years prior. We could look to the arrival of Puka Nacua in 2023, as he has eaten up 266 targets (even while missing six games in 2024 himself). But it should be noted that Kupp has averaged just 1.4 fantasy points per target over that span, 47th among WRs with 100+ targets, behind names like Allen Lazard and Dontayvion Wicks. In 2021 and 2022, he averaged 1.8 fantasy points per target, best among that same sample of receivers. And when Nacua suffered an injury after 25 snaps in Week 1 last season (missing Week 2), and Kupp racked up 27 targets in those first two games, he still only managed 1.1 fantasy points per target.
Then there's the reality that Kupp turned 30 prior to the 2023 season and 31 prior to 2024. While that's not a death knell for wide receivers, particularly those who win the way Kupp does, it does not make recovering from injury any easier or quicker. Considering how good he looked at 29 in 2022, before the high ankle sprain, and the fact that he entered 2023 with a lingering hamstring injury and again battled ankle injuries at the start of 2024, I believe his dip in efficiency should be primarily attributed to a lack of health. But assuming he can get healthy and return to some semblance of his former form, what kind of fantasy impact can he make in a totally new environment in Seattle?
How Cooper Kupp Fits in Seattle
Around this time last year, the Seahawks offense was coordinated by Ryan Grubb, captained by Geno Smith, and led in some capacity by big-bodied downfield speedster DK Metcalf and reliable veteran Tyler Lockett. Now, it's being coordinated by Klint Kubiak and captained by Sam Darnold, with both Metcalf and Lockett out of the picture. Additionally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a massive sophomore breakout during the 2024 season, totaling 100 catches for 1,130 yards but truly turning on the jets over the last nine games, during which he set a full-season pace of 1,402 yards and scored five of his six touchdowns. In other words, Seattle looks completely different and will be tough to project for 2025.
The first and most glaring note about Kupp's addition is the potential clash with JSN over slot snaps. Last season, Smith-Njigba ran a league-high 561 routes out of the slot (84% of his total routes), while Kupp ran 65% of his routes out of the slot. One of these slot-heavy receivers is going to have to move to the outside the majority of the time, and given their skill sets, it would not be surprising to see a somewhat "healthy" split in slot alignment between the two. That's not particularly great for either player.
Last season, Smith-Njigba saw a 0.6 dip in yards per route run in the rare instances he played outside the slot and Kupp has been better in that metric from the slot his entire career. Moreover, Klint Kubiak's Saints offense produced a grand total of 519 slot routes last season, sixth-fewest in the league, while running a low rate of three-WR sets. Both New Orleans (27%) and Darnold's Vikings (28%) targeted the slot at bottom-eight rates in 2024.
It feels most likely that Kupp will be forced to move outside much more often, while Smith-Njigba's own slot rate also dips a bit in balance. Given the arrival of Kubiak and Darnold, it's also likely there are generally fewer targets to go around in Seattle this season — they ranked seventh in the league with 593 pass attempts last season, while both the Saints and Vikings were middle of the pack.
And, of course, no matter how well Seattle manages the alignment distribution between these receivers, this should be a boost for Sam Darnold. When healthy, Kupp is a quarterback's best friend and has produced elite fantasy-point-per-target rates in his career. He won't be Triple-Crown-Kupp — and may not even be 70% of Triple-Crown-Kupp — but even at 65%, he's a better WR2 than Marquez Valdes-Scantling (no offense).
Fantasy Outlook for the Seahawks' Pass-Catchers
Given the curious conglomeration of personnel, it's tough to say where the routes and targets will go in this offense, but Kupp's addition likely brings a slight downgrade for all the pass-catchers. Smith-Njigba should see fewer slot routes and fewer targets overall than he would have if Seattle had signed a receiver with less pedigree and a less similar skill set. Where he could have been a far-and-away number one, he will likely now fit more of a "1A" prototype with Kupp remaining relevant as a 1B.
Meanwhile, Kupp will almost certainly suffer from moving to the outside more often, and given JSN's 2024 breakout, will likely play second fiddle to the 23-year-old as he had been to Nacua in Los Angeles. That means his days of threatening for 140+ targets are likely over, which lowers his ceiling somewhat significantly.
After what we saw from JSN over the latter half of 2024, even with the changes at quarterback and coordinator and the addition of Kupp, I expect him to threaten for a WR1 finish in fantasy. However, assuming Kupp remains healthy, the move probably cuts Smith-Njigba's ceiling from the mega-elite tier (right after Chase and Jefferson) to top six or eight. It also might be enough to shift previously close rankings with guys like Drake London, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, or Terry McLaurin (for those who had JSN above them previously).
As for Kupp, you can expect him to hover somewhere in the WR4 range in drafts. I think he can outperform that draft price with a fully healthy season (and decent production from Darnold), but there's a metric ton of "ifs" surrounding the one-time fantasy king of the position. And if you had interest in Valdes-Scantling as a "who else" sleeper or best-ball target, this puts a damper on his upside as well.
The Bottom Line
- Cooper Kupp has been largely inefficient the last couple of seasons coming off a variety of injuries but is still a capable receiver with plenty of target-earning ability if healthy.
- He's a somewhat strange add for Seattle in particular, given the clash of slot skill sets between Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the potential reduction in three-WR sets under OC Klint Kubiak — most likely, both players will see a dip in slot usage, with JSN maintaining the majority and Kupp moving primarily to the outside.
- Smith-Njigba takes a slight dip in ceiling (and therefore overall ranking) for me with Kupp's arrival — still in the fringe WR1 conversation — while Kupp himself ends up somewhere in WR4 territory, and Sam Darnold gets a small but noticeable bump in value.
- According to current Underdog ADP, Kupp is coming off boards as the WR49 (93.7). If he stays healthy — no guarantee considering age and recent history — I believe he will outperform that price and be a low-end WR3 and useful FLEX play.
