NFC South Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 5+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Falcons to make the playoffs in early July.
We kicked off our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line last week, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'll go division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units). This season, the NFC South faces the AFC South and NFC North while rotating through the NFC East, AFC East, and NFC West for their "unique 3" opponents.
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NFC South
New Orleans Saints
The Saints couldn't take advantage of the wide-open NFC South last season. Middling quarterback play and head-scratching in-game management from head coach Dennis Allen capped the Saints' upside in 2022, with the latter still likely an issue moving forward. An underperforming offense mixed with an overachieving defense led the Saints to a 7-win season and an offseason where finding a stable presence at quarterback in the post-Drew Brees era was paramount.
The offseason addition of Derek Carr helps raise the floor for the Saints in 2023, but we know who he is at this point. He's a low-yield mutual fund in the middle of a crypto boom. His career-high 9.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last year led to the lowest adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%) since his rookie year, which is likely more scheme specific than signal moving forward. Because he doesn't take sacks and gets the ball out quickly, Carr can function behind a poor offensive line, which he did for most of his career as a Raider. This unit in New Orleans acts as a significant upgrade despite being a middle-of-the-pack unit on a league-wide basis.
Prominently featuring second-year wide receiver Chris Olave is a must, but the Saints' path to NFC South dominance lies in the hands of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Kamara has had a suspension hanging over his head since last offseason, and this week's news should lead to an answer on that front sooner than later. A four-game suspension has been routinely tossed around and feels like the minimum, but these things are always tough to parse through. The Saints added backfield depth behind Kamara, with 2022 touchdown king Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller added this offseason. If Miller can pull off a poor man's Kamara early on, this is a duo that compliments each other well and will be impactful all year, given Kamara's production is trending in the wrong direction. What we get from Michael Thomas at this point is anyone's guess.
Defensively, Dennis Allen deserves a lot of credit for keeping this team afloat. They dealt with a number of impactful injuries in the secondary and still managed to finish 2022 ranking sixth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. They've had a bit of turnover among the front seven this offseason, but they should still be a slightly above-average unit overall if Marshon Lattimore plays more than seven games. They were poor at generating pressure last season, and I don't think they've improved, so I'm worried that there's more regression to come.
Handicapping the Saints and all of the NFC South this season comes down to their schedule. The Saints have the league's easiest schedule, according to opponent win totals heading into the 2023 season. They'll play the majority of the league's worst projected teams, meaning they're set to face a lot of the league's worst quarterbacks. I'd love to fade the Saints this season in another scenario, but it's difficult to do so under these conditions.
Best Bet: NFC South Second Place (+180, BetMGM)
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Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons played a unique style of football last season, particularly in the early part of the season, hiding Marcus Mariota as a passer and leaning on one of the league's top run-blocking offensive lines. This 1950s style of ball helped them exceed expectations, but that speaks more to what we expected coming into the season than it did their actual performance. They turned the offense over to Desmond Ridder late last season, so his growth will be key. They've had an excellent offseason and have become a very popular sleeper team, reminiscent of last year's Detroit Lions.
Head coach Arthur Smith has made lemonade out of lemons before, so I won't be surprised if he's able to do it again this season in Atlanta. Smith was able to churn multiple productive seasons out of Ryan Tannehill while calling plays in Tennessee and showed a willingness to mold his offense around the abilities of his roster, which seems like a no-brainer approach but isn't always the case in the NFL. Ridder's sample of 136 dropbacks is small, with half of them coming against a beat-up Cardinals secondary and a Buccaneers squad that played backups in the second half. I'm in wait-and-see mode, but as long as he doesn't take sacks at a high clip or turn the ball over a ton, I think this team is competitive within the division.
The bull case for the Falcons centers around Ridder's supporting cast, along with their cupcake strength of schedule. They've invested first-round draft capital into the offense for years, and the past three picks, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, will spearhead any success that Atlanta has this season. Both young pass-catchers have elite traits and contested catch abilities, which bodes well for Ridder's development as a passer. All reports out of Falcons' camp start with Bijan Robinson's all-world swiss-army-knife role in this offense, and the rookie will be working behind one of the league's best run-blocking offensive lines. If reports are true, Robinson should be the focal point of this offense as a runner and receiver.
Defensively, the Falcons are set to look completely different. Last year's team featured a unique blend of poor secondary play and non-existent pass rush, a difficult combination to combat if you're trying to win football games. Former Saints' assistant Ryan Nielsen takes over as the Falcons' defensive coordinator, and the offseason additions to the roster make it more likely that Atlanta can try and replicate some of the schematic elements that the Saints thrive at under Dennis Allen. The secondary was bolstered with the additions of free safety Jessie Bates (CIN) and cornerbacks Jeffrey Okudah (DET) and Mike Hughes (KC). Okudah and Hughes are far from sure-thing upgrades, but both players have a strong pedigree and had productive stretches of play in 2022. The front seven received a facelift as well. Calais Campbell (BAL) and Bud Dupree (TEN) should help improve the pass-rushing depth, while former Saints NT David Onyemata and LB Kaden Elliss come along with Nielsen in his first year as defensive coordinator.
The Falcons have the second-easiest schedule according to opponent win totals heading into the 2023 season. Outside of road games in Detroit, Jacksonville, and New York (Jets), Atlanta is a coin-flip in 14 games this season. There's a path to them winning 10+ games while at the same time being a pretty pedestrian team overall. This division, and the NFC as a whole, is wide open, and it's not difficult to squint your eyes and see the Falcons coming out on top in the NFC South.
Best Bet: Total Division Wins - Over 3.5 (+100, Caesars)
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Carolina Panthers
The Matt Rhule and Baker Mayfield eras ended abruptly last season, as did Christian McCaffrey's tenure in Carolina, as he was traded mid-season to San Francisco. Interm head coach Steve Wilkes did an excellent job replacing Rhule, going 6-5 and nearly winning the division. Wilkes was bypassed in the offseason head coaching search for Frank Reich, who couldn't survive another quarterback change in Indianapolis.
Reich has been highly regarded as a great in-game coach, but he crawled into a shell at times last season, likely knowing that his Matt Ryan-led Colts offense was dead on arrival. The Panthers' front office pushed all of its chips in, giving Reich and his new coaching staff the top pick in April's draft, where they selected Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. It's a terrific marriage of minds, with Young's processing and decision-making skills a huge piece of his appeal as a prospect. I'm still slightly worried about Young's ability to hold up over his career since he's a historical outlier size-wise, but there's also a chance he's a true talent elevator right out of the gate. He'll be playing behind a league-average offensive line with a below-average set of offensive play-makers, so he'll have his work cut out for him in Year 1.
There are a lot of "ifs" surrounding this defense, but there's a chance that the Panthers' defense is the best individual unit in this division. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero comes over from Denver, where he led them to a top-10 finish in defensive DVOA despite the Broncos leading the league in adjusted games lost due to injury. This is a lateral move for Evero, but he'll be a head coach in this league sooner than later. EDGE Brian Burns is the x-factor for Evero's defense. His 13 sacks last year were a career-high, and there's not a lot of pass-rushing prowess behind him on this roster, so they'll need him to continue to wreak havoc off the edge. Both starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and C.J. Henderson were top-10 selections in recent years. If they can stay healthy, this can be a sneaky-good pass defense. Their safety room is one of the best in the league, with Jeremy Chinn freed up to play closer to the line of scrimmage with the addition of Von Bell (CIN) this offseason.
The Panthers aren't currently favored in a game until Week 8 against Houston, with trips to Seattle, Detroit, and Miami all coming in the first six weeks. With next year's first-round pick headed to Chicago as part of the Bryce Young trade, there's no late-season tank in store for the Panthers. The range of outcomes feels vast, with Young's ability to get the most out of his questionable pass-catching core at the root of their 2023 results.
Best Bet: NFC South Third Place (+180, BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 'Tompa Bay' era came to an end after a 31-14 home playoff loss to Dallas sealed their 2022 fate. The Buccaneers needed all 18 weeks to win the league's worst division, earning their second consecutive NFC South crown with an 8-9 record last season. All in all, the Tom Brady experience was a successful one for the Buccaneers, but 2023 will be very different.
The 2023 offseason has been a busy one for the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles is back as the head coach and defacto defensive coordinator, along with new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who joins the team after spending the past 12 seasons on Seattle's offensive staff. They entered the offseason in salary cap hell and have been forced to let multiple starters depart to prevent carrying the cap restraints over to 2024, and they've succeeded in doing so. At the same time, it's ravaged the depth of the 2023 roster. Cluster injuries at any position, and this house of cards collapses in a major way.
You're nothing in this league without above-average quarterback play. It's the harsh reality of today's NFL. With the free agent market barren and the Buccaneers without the draft capital to get a long-term solution in April's NFL Draft, the 2023 Buccaneers will be led by former No. 1 overall pick-turned-journeyman Baker Mayfield. Optimistic Bucs fans will fondly harken back to the playoff run in Cleveland or bemoan the bad breaks and supporting casts that Mayfield has played with since entering the league. If that's you, stop it. I'm sorry, but we just have too much evidence to show us who Baker Mayfield is. Last season, 46 NFL quarterbacks took at least 125 snaps. Mayfield ranked dead last in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), 45th in success rate, and 43rd in EPA per play, besting the likes of Colt McCoy, Sam Ehlinger, and Skylar Thompson.
Mayfield's supporting cast at the skill positions is above-average, led by the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Second-year running back Rachaad White will likely be called upon to fill the inefficient void left behind by Leonard Fournette. He'll be working behind an offensive line that is in a transitional phase after the team traded Shaq Mason to Houston and Donovan Smith left for Kansas City in free agency.
Tristian Wirfs will kick over to left tackle, and second-round pick Cody Mauch will be asked to fill Mason's role in his rookie season. As is the case with most of the position groups on this roster, the starting offensive line looks serviceable, assuming none of them miss a start.
Defensively, Todd Bowles has always been a talent maximizer, but the theme from the offensive side of the ball remains. Tampa Bay's depth on defense is razor-thin at all levels, particularly at cornerback behind Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. Dean played in a career-high 15 games last season, while Davis has yet to top 14 games played in any of his four seasons. Not great, Bob. In addition, undersized rookie defensive tackle Calijah Kancey will be asked to give the pass rush a spark after it finished 22nd in ESPN's pass rush win rate last season and is set to run back the same edge group in 2023.
The death knell for the Buccaneers comes via the schedule. Despite finishing just 8-9, the Buccaneers were the belle of the ball in the NFC South, so they got a first-place schedule that looks very different than their division mates. The Bucs 'unique 3' slate is one of the toughest in the league: Week 3 vs. Philadelphia, Week 8 at Buffalo, and Week 11 at San Francisco.
With no long-term answer at quarterback on the roster and with two top-tier prospects on deck in the 2024 Draft, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye, the Buccaneers will hopefully learn from the Texans' mishaps in 2022 and fold like a cheap shirt.
