George Kittle's Path to an Elite Fantasy Football Year
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is currently being drafted as the TE4, 47th overall in Yahoo! drafts. The target competition logjam in San Francisco presents questions as to whether Kittle can return value as an elite fantasy football asset, but while his path to an elite TE1 finish comes with significant hurdles, Kittle’s talent, likely quarterback stabilization, and schedule lend credence to his ADP.
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George Kittle's Pass-Catching Data
Kittle’s pass-catching data is difficult to parse as his target competition muddied after the 49ers traded for running back Christian McCaffrey in Week 7 and wide receiver Deebo Samuel missed Week 8 and Weeks 15-17 with injuries to his hamstring, MCL, and high ankle. The NFC Championship game’s data is also terribly unreliable due to a multi-quarterback-injury catastrophe. A nine-game sample exists in which Kittle, McCaffrey, Samuel, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk took the field together in good health.
The table below compares Kittle’s production in the nine-game sample against his overall numbers from 2019–2022. A 25-target filter was applied to the nine-game dataset and a 50-target filter was applied to the remaining four. The NFC Championship data is excluded from all 2022 figures. San Francisco’s bye occurred in Week 9. An asterisk denotes the nine-game sample.
| Season | Tgt Share % | EZ Tgt Share % | Route % | Yards Per Route Run | Targets Per Route Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022* | 15.6% (4th) | 25.0% (1st) | 77.4% (3rd) | 1.83 (t-3rd) | 18.0% (5th) |
| 2022 | 18.7% (4th) | 35.5% (1st) | 77.4% (3rd) | 2.06 (1st) | 22.0% (t-3rd) |
| 2021 | 20.3% (2nd) | 27.6% (1st) | 84.2% (3rd) | 2.20 (2nd) | 23.0% (2nd) |
| 2020 | 21.6% (1st) | 9.1% (3rd) | 74.3% (3rd) | 2.84 (1st) | 29.0% (1st) |
| 2019 | 22.6% (1st) | 20.0% (1st) | 79.5% (2nd) | 2.87 (1st) | 31.0% (1st) |
Team rank in parentheses.
The table below further expands on Kittle’s receiving data.
| Season | Half-PPR PPG (Reg Szn) | Per Game: Rec/Tgt | Rec Yds/Game | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022* | 10.2 | 3.4/4.8 | 48.9 | 5 |
| 2022 | 11.0 | 3.9/5.5 | 52.8 | 11 |
| 2021 | 12.2 | 4.6/6.4 | 59.9 | 7 |
| 2020 | 13.0 | 6.0/8.0 | 79.2 | 2 |
| 2019 | 12.9 | 5.5/7.1 | 66.1 | 5 |
Kittle’s numbers compare favorably to the tight end position’s elite tier over the last four years. Since 2019, six tight ends per year, on average, have totaled 10+ half-PPR points per game. Although Kittle’s production clearly decreased in the all-hands-on-deck nine-game sample, he still managed to stay above that 10.0-point threshold, doing so with a replicable 25.0% end zone target share. When compared to tight ends with at least 50 targets in Weeks 1-17, Kittle’s nine-game-sample 1.83 yards per route run ties for sixth place with the Atlanta Falcons’ Kyle Pitts, though Kittle’s 18.0% per-route target rate falls outside the top 20.
Target Competition & Health
Teammate health could swing target competition in Kittle’s favor. Prior to 2022, 4for4’s Doctor of Physical Therapy Adam Hutchison projected McCaffrey for one-to-two remaining seasons of elite fantasy football production. McCaffrey tallied 290 rushing attempts and 97 receptions last year, before turning 27 in June. Samuel has yet to complete a full regular season over the course of his four-year career. Both men are at an elevated risk of missing time.
Brock Purdy's Recovery Timeline
San Francisco likely found its long-term quarterback answer with the 2022 NFL Draft’s final pick, Brock Purdy. Purdy’s recovery from UCL surgery is progressing nicely, putting him on track to compete with Trey Lance and Sam Darnold for the starting role. Purdy’s incumbent status, 2022 successes, and UCL rehabilitation make him the favorite for a Week 1 start. Among NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks, Purdy ranked second in both expected points added (EPA) per pass play (0.249) and adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.9). It is reasonable to expect Purdy to improve on his rookie season, which benefits all involved.
A Helpful Schedule
Kittle also benefits from a tight end-friendly schedule. Five of San Francisco’s 2023 opponents finished bottom 12 in 2022 against tight ends. Included in the five are divisional opponents, Cardinals and Seahawks, who ranked 30th and 32nd, respectively, offering Kittle seven games against the league’s most inefficient tight end coverage units in Weeks 1-17.
Bottom Line
- Despite the increased target competition in the 2022 nine-game sample, Kittle still produced as a double-digit half-PPR scorer while maintaining a 1.83 yards per route run rate.
- Should McCaffrey and/or Samuel miss time due to their elevated risk of injury, Kittle's target volume would sizably increase.
- Purdy’s impressive rookie passing efficiency and expected 2023 development should increase overall passing volume.
- Kittle has access to a seven-game stretch against the league’s worst tight-end coverage units.
- His current TE4 ranking and ADP are appropriate, given Kittle's 2023 potential.
