Fantasy Football: J.K. Dobbins Has an Uphill Climb in 2023

Despite a somewhat rocky start to his career, J.K. Dobbins has shown flashes of brilliance that hint at a promising future. Dobbins, a 5'10", 214-pound running back, was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the second round (55th overall) of the 2020 NFL Draft. He has played 23 games over his career, with a total of 1325 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. His average yards per attempt stands at an impressive 5.9. The fantasy community’s relationship with Dobbins is very similar to a weekend golfer’s relationship with golf. It’s not always great, but when it’s good, it’s fantastic. Anyone who golfs has been in a situation where nothing is going right with their game. But that one pure shot on the 14th hole gives you hope. It makes you hold on to your clubs instead of throwing them in the dumpster on the way back to your car.

Click here for more 2023 Player Profiles!

2023 Training Camp Update

Dobbins has yet to participate in off-season activities for the Ravens. He encountered a setback with his knee and has been unable to suit up so far. Coach Jim Harbaugh gave a vague update on Dobbins’ situation last week. It’s an evolving, murky situation that doesn’t look like it will be resolved anytime soon. The “complexities” that Coach Harbaugh was seemingly referring to center around the sudden nature of the setback and the timing of his public desire for a contract extension.

Career in Review

Staying on the field has proven to be a challenge for Dobbins. In his career, he has missed more games than he has played. His rookie season saw him participate in 15 games, but a torn ACL during the preseason completely sidelined him for his sophomore year. After making a comeback in the third week of the following year, he was only able to play for a month before another knee injury benched him. However, he made a return in the final month of the season.

Over his career, he has played 23 games, amassing a total of 1325 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. His average yards per attempt is an impressive 5.9, showcasing his ability to make the most of each carry.

The 2022 season was a particularly noteworthy chapter in Dobbins' career. Despite only playing eight games due to injury, Dobbins managed to rush for 520 yards, maintaining an average of 5.7 yards per attempt. His agility and speed were on full display as he consistently found gaps in the opposition's defense and exploited them for significant gains. His two rushing touchdowns added to his tally, demonstrating his knack for finding the end zone when it mattered most.

Despite the challenges he faced, including starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, Dobbins' performance in the 2022 season was a testament to his resilience and determination. His stats may not have been the most eye-catching, but his contribution to the Ravens' offense was undeniable. As he heads into the 2023 season, Dobbins is expected to play a key role in the Ravens' offensive plans, so long as he returns during his contract dispute.

Role with Baltimore

The team, as presently constructed, won’t have a true RB1 as long as Lamar Jackson is there. With a quarterback siphoning off over 20% of the team’s carries each year, it’s difficult for even a true workhorse running back to take hold.

Note: The 2022 Shares add up to more than 100% because the share numbers are based on games played, not the total season.

In the past four seasons, the Ravens have been perfectly content to spread the rushes around. In Coach Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach, there hasn’t been a single running back to post a 50%+ market share since Terrance West in 2016.

The other issue with the Ravens’ philosophy is that running backs simply don’t get many targets. Whether that’s a function of Lamar Jackson’s game, the offensive scheme, the running backs they choose, or some combination of the three, it affects the ceiling of the running back. The presence of Gus Edwards and the addition of Melvin Gordon to the team's running back room muddy the waters a bit, as well. Since 2019, there hasn’t been a single Baltimore running back to crack 8% of the team's targets. For reference, across the NFL, there were 31 qualifying running backs to crack that market share in their games played.

2023 Outlook and Drafting Implications

Dobbins doesn’t have much leverage in this contract situation, so I fully expect to see him suiting up for Baltimore soon. When the dust settles with this situation, Dobbins will slot right in as the RB1. We currently have him at RB23 in our projections. He currently goes as RB19 on Underdog and is RB20 in our multi-site ADP. We’re a bit lower on Dobbins than some other projections around the industry. But it’s hard to put him too high in the ranks with all of the limitations placed on him by his team’s philosophy.

The best-case scenario for Dobbins is efficiency and touchdown upside. If you’re willing to rely on those things, then he’s a fine pick. In my redraft leagues, I’m not willing to bank on touchdowns and efficiency when there are other running backs in that part of the draft that I’m higher on.

Conclusions

• J.K. Dobbins, despite injury setbacks, has shown potential in his career with 1325 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns over 23 games.
• His participation in the 2023 off-season is uncertain due to a knee setback and unresolved contract extension.
• The Ravens' team structure limits Dobbins' potential as a true RB1, but he is expected to return as the RB1 post-contract resolution.
• From a reality perspective, that’s great. For fantasy purposes, his ceiling is capped by the presence of Jackson and the potential of other running backs to cede goal-line touches.