What to Expect From Chris Godwin Without Tom Brady
Chris Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the benefit of playing with Tom Brady at quarterback for the past three seasons. Not only did that come with exemplary quarterback play, but Brady's high level of play gave Tampa's coaching staff confidence to dial up pass play after pass play. Godwin and the other receivers reaped the reward from this atmosphere, but this upcoming season looks far different for Godwin. The loss of Brady will not only impact the team's passing efficiency but the overall volume, as well.
Godwin finished as the WR19 last year in Half-PPR (Points Per Game/PPG), but he played under 35% of the snaps in Week 1. He was returning from a torn ACL and injured his hamstring in that first game. He would miss the next two games and was limited in the following two. From Weeks 6-17, he averaged 12.8 PPG, which would have been good enough to finish as the fantasy WR15. He was the WR8 in 2021 and WR16 in 2020. He's being drafted as the WR27 in Half-PPR scoring on Yahoo! formats this offseason. The loss of Brady is having a significant impact on his value with fantasy managers.
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The Chris Godwin Experience
Over the last two seasons, Godwin has averaged over nine targets per game, despite not posting a 23% target share in either season. Since 2020, Godwin has recorded the 15th-most targets among receivers. During that time, he's missed nine games due to injuries. This is where it's important to remember the incoming quarterback switch because that team volume is not going to be as high as it's been the last three seasons.
Chris Godwin's Per Game Statistics in Games with at least a 35% Snap Share (17 Game Pace in Parenthesis)
| Year | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.6% | 10.1 (172) | 7.2 (122) | 70.3 (1,195) | 1.87 | 11.8 |
| 2021 | 20.2% | 9.2 (156) | 7.1 (121) | 81.1 (1,379) | 1.93 | 14.3 |
| 2020 | 17.7% | 7.0 (119) | 5.4 (92) | 70.0 (1,193) | 1.94 | 13.2 |
One of Godwin's selling points has been his high number of targets. This has largely been due to how many snaps he plays from the slot position. Despite missing time in each of the last two seasons, he has still been in the top 10 for most snaps in the slot. This affords him a ton of positive matchups and short-area targets, which are often met with a high catch rate.
Per @FTNData here are the WRs that ran the most routes while covered by a linebacker last season:
1) CeeDee Lamb: 105
2) Christian Kirk: 89
3) Deebo Samuel: 74
4) Chris Godwin: 66
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown: 63 pic.twitter.com/63iDF31C8H— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) July 20, 2023
These are the kinds of matchups that help make Godwin an appealing fantasy receiver, especially in PPR formats. While his target shares may not be as high as fantasy managers would like, he has been targeted at a high route per route run. Last year, he posted a 27% target per route run average, which was the 11th-highest in the NFL. This aspect will help Godwin continue to stay busy despite the decrease in team passing volume.
Risk vs. Reward
With no Brady at the helm, fantasy managers should expect a significant decrease in their volume. Last season, Tampa averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game. In 2021, they averaged 43.3 attempts per game, both of which led the league. While it's guaranteed the team won't pass as much this season as they did with Brady, the reality is there is a lot of room for their per-game average to decrease and for the team to still be top-12 in passing volume. Even if their pass attempts per game fell by 10 per game, they'd still finish in the top 10.
From 2017–2019, since Chris Godwin was drafted & pre-Tom Brady, TB has ranked:
-3rd (2017), 4th (2018) & 4th (2019) in pass attempts.
-4th (2017), 1st (2018), & 1st (2019) in passing yards.
-10th (2017, 3rd (2018) & 3rd (2019) in passing TDs.
Buy the dip on Godwin & Evans.— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) July 3, 2023
Thanks to Godwin and Mike Evans, Tampa Bay has relied very heavily on their passing game. That was regardless of who was at quarterback. From 2018–2019, as indicated in the tweet above, the starting quarterbacks for the Buccaneers consisted of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston. Their offensive strengths reside in the talent of their receivers and it makes sense the team is going to continue to feature them.
Brad Idzik Reveals Top Focus In Coaching #Bucs WRs
Tampa Bay is installing an offense with shorter routes that will give WRs plenty of room to get open after a quick pass.
To get buy-in, Idzik mentioned that it took "The Tom Moore Approach."#GoBucs https://t.co/cf9Qy0dzG8— PewterReport 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) July 13, 2023
A passing offense focused on quick passes and shorter routes is perfect for Godwin's skill set. With Evans continuing to get older, Godwin will likely act as the team's No. 1 weapon in the passing game. He has been an efficient receiver over the past three seasons, catching over 73% of his targets. Fantasy managers should not expect that to continue with the upcoming quarterback change.
Tom Brady vs. Baker Mayfield, 2022
| Player | Completion % | CPOE | Success % | On-Target % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 66.5% | 0.5% | 47.8% | 73.8% |
| Baker Mayfield (LAR) | 63.8% | -3.5% | 39.7% | 71.7% |
| Baker Mayfield (CAR) | 57.5% | -8.9% | 35% | 64.7% |
From the table above, it's clear fantasy managers should not be expecting the same level of effectiveness from Tampa Bay's offense. This will negatively impact Godwin and his fantasy value. However, based on his current price (WR27), a lot of these concerns are factored into his cost. Here at 4for4, Godwin is ranked as our No. 32 WR, indicating that his current Yahoo! ADP is not fully considering the risks of a Baker Mayfield-led offense.
Bottom Line
- Godwin has operated as a high-end WR2 for much of the last three years and has been one of the better fantasy receivers since 2020.
- He's been one of the better slot receivers and generally sees a lot of his targets from this position, which often puts him into optimal matchups with a shorter average target of depth, which helps keep his catch rate higher.
- Tampa Bay has operated as the most pass-heavy offense in the past three years. With the retirement of Tom Brady, the offense is going to function very differently. The volume is going to seriously decrease.
- Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask will not be remotely as effective as Brady. Not only will the volume decrease, but the efficiency of the remaining targets also decrease.
- Godwin is currently being drafted as a high-end WR3 but is ranked here as more of a mid-WR3.
- The risks associated with the offensive system and quarterback change in Tampa lower Godwin's ceiling and makes him a somewhat risky option.
