NFL Survivor Pool Strategy 101

As the NFL preseason kicks off and we inch ever-so-close to week one of the NFL season, football fans everywhere are finding a way to get their skin in the game. For some, that means getting into a fantasy football league, and for others it means sports betting options such as daily fantasy sports. These options aren’t for everyone though, some lack the funds or the hardcore knowledge to participate in the above two forms. So, what then for the casual football fan who just wants to have some fun? That’s where NFL Survivor pools come in handy.

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What is an NFL Survivor Pool?

A survivor pool, also known as a knockout pool or elimination pool is where participants each select one team to win each week. The team must win that week straight up, no point spread or anything like that to consider. If your team loses, you are eliminated, but if your team wins, you move on to the next week with the rest of the survivors.

What’s the Catch?

The catch is where things get interesting. Sure, you could pick the Kansas City Chiefs in a Week 1 matchup where they are favored by 20 points and have an easy road to Week 2, but if you use the Chiefs in Week 1, you cannot use them again all season long. This is where strategy comes in, and this is what makes a survivor league unlike any other.

Keys to Success

There isn’t one strategy that is foolproof in a survivor pool, and much like in fantasy football, eventually, you will need a little luck. But luck aside, let’s look at some strategies to consider that could boost your chances of winning.

1. Stay Informed

There is nothing worse than selecting a team as your survivor pick and getting to game time only to realize that a key piece of their team is inactive, and you will be fighting an uphill battle. Some things to consider before making your selection are the Vegas odds for the game and injury reports, as well as weather conditions. All three of these factors can sway a matchup heavily in one direction or another and to make a pick without the information is like throwing darts blindly. No game can be won on paper and things happen that no one could have predicted, but the more research you do, the less variance you will have in your success rate.

2. Analyze the Point Spread

When all is said and done, the best way to survive a week in a survivor pool is simply to look at the biggest favorites each week. Not every favorite is going to win, and being a heavy favorite is no guarantee, it gives you a significantly higher chance of surviving than taking an underdog does, but that should come as no surprise.

3. Have a Look at Ownership percentages

This strategy is in total contradiction to tip #2. Sure, picking the 20-point favorite would seem to give you a huge advantage, but it also gives an advantage to the multitude of other participants who also take the chalk pick. In certain situations, it can be beneficial to take a team that isn’t as heavily favored in hopes fewer participants will have them and advance. If Team A is 75% owned and you win with them it is beneficial, however, if Team A is only 25% owned and you win with them it is far more beneficial as it will give you less competition the following week.

In all the years I have been doing survivor leagues, only one thing is certain. At some point, a good chunk of the league is going to be eliminated on the same huge favorite. While choosing a secondary team can be riskier, it’s a great feeling to see half of the league eliminated on a week that you managed to survive with a riskier pick.

4. Balance Current Value vs. Seasonal Value

Anytime you select a team you must determine whether the team is more valuable to you this week or in the future. For example, if the Buffalo Bills are a 10-point favorite this week but are 10-point favorites on multi occasions in the future they may be more valuable to hold for a week with fewer options to choose from. Conversely, if the Lions are a 10-point favorite this week but are never favored again, they hold significantly more value this week than in the future. Therefore, it’s beneficial to select the Lions this week, while saving the Bills for a future week.

5. Avoid Divisional Matchups

Selecting the San Francisco 49ers as a heavy favorite overly the lowly Arizona Cardinals may seem like an easy play, but as we’ve seen in the past, anything can happen when division rivals square off. It seems like every week of the NFL season sees a heavy underdog rise and beat a divisional foe, this is even more so if the underdog is the home team. Every season, a good percentage of participants will be eliminated on a massive upset that features a divisional battle.

6. Look Out for Let Down Games

One week we see a battle between two heavyweight teams, the Bengals, and the Eagles. The Eagles narrowly escape with a win and the following week they get a road game against a huge underdog, the Los Angeles Rams. Surely, the Eagles will dispatch the Rams easily since they were able to beat much stiffer competition the previous week, but this is where the let-down game comes into play. Many times, after a huge game against a tough opponent, teams will have over-extended themselves and come out flat the next week, which can lead to a massive flop against lesser competition the following week. Don’t avoid these teams altogether, just be sure you’ve properly researched the matchup to determine if they will fall victim to the let-down game, this can be even more accurate when the heavy favorite must travel across the country for the game.

Pool Size Considerations

The final thing to consider is the size of the pool. Typically, the more participants a pool has in it, the longer it will last. This can be huge as it requires significantly more planning for the future.

An eight-person pool is simple, and you can get by taking the best team each week without fear of running out of quality teams.

A 30-person is significantly more complex and will require you to be more tactful when making selections. You can’t burn through all the good teams in the first six weeks if you know the pool is going to last 16 weeks or more. Have a look at your pool size and plan accordingly.