3 WRs to Avoid in FFPC High Stakes Fantasy Football Drafts
Fantasy football draft week is right around the corner. The FFPC is one of my favorite platforms to play fantasy football on because of their scoring and draft pools but winning significant money isn’t easy. Using the last week of average draft position (ADP), I have targeted three wide receivers you should fade.
The FFPC has a variety of entry points with massive prize pools. Speaking from experience, there are few things better than a sweat to potentially win a million dollars in Week 17. That type of upside doesn’t exist in most other leagues. If you want to hop in an FFPC draft, sign up here.
More FFPC Strategy: RB Targets | WR Targets | Running Draft Diary | FFPC ADP | TE Targets | Undervalued Targets
WR Fades in FFPC Drafts
Jerry Jeudy (38.5 Overall, WR18)
Jerry Jeudy finished as the WR22 in fantasy football last year and is now being drafted as the WR18. At the three/four turn of fantasy football drafts, the downside here is significant. If Sean Payton doesn’t turn around the offense significantly, it will be nearly impossible for anyone on the Broncos' offense to produce. Even if he does, the heightened target competition could prove to be too much for him.
Beyond a need for offensive competency, Jeudy has legitimate competition for targets. They drafted Marvin Mims in the second round this year, Sean Payton’s hand-picked choice at wideout. On top of that, Payton and beat reporters have talked about Courtland Sutton being the “Micheal Thomas” of the Broncos' offense. Where does that leave Jeudy? To be honest, I’m not quite sure, and that’s one of the reasons I’m not too excited about him. His draft profile was always intriguing, but he needs a lot of things to go right in order to pay off at his current ADP, let alone have any upside.
Chris Godwin (61.8 Overall, WR28)
Chris Godwin was the WR8 from Week 4 on after an early season injury hampered him. Despite the production, almost all of that was volume-based. Godwin saw 6+ targets in literally every game for the rest of the season. This resulted in 104 total receptions and a gaudy PPR stat line. Godwin is a solid player but a lot of his volume was the result of Tom Brady dragging Tampa Bay to a playoff berth by throwing the ball 45 times per game—the most in the league by four attempts per game.
They now have Baker Mayfield behind a below-average offensive line. I can’t sum it up much better than Ryan Noonan did:
"46 NFL quarterbacks took at least 125 snaps last season. Baker Mayfield ranked dead last in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), 45th in success rate, and 43rd in EPA per play."
We will likely be getting bottom-tier efficiency out of Mayfield and significantly less volume. On top of this, Mike Evans will also command targets in intermediate and deep areas of the field.
Kadarius Toney (100.1 Overall, WR47)
Kadarius Toney’s ADP has tanked lately, and I still want to fade him. He started off the draft season as a fringe sixth-/seventh-rounder but has since become less desirable for drafters. Toney suffered a partially torn meniscus right as training camp opened that required surgery. The Chiefs are saying he will be back by Week 1 but it seems unlikely. He has been injured in two seasons in the NFL and there isn’t much reason to think that changes considering he is already injured heading into this season.
The front office already came out and said they want to make sure he is 100% before he is out there and that they aren’t going to rush it. He could legitimately be out for at least the first month of the season, and potentially more. When he does return, he’ll be a tough player to rely on. Leading into the Super Bowl there was non-stop buzz about how much they were going to use Toney—he played six snaps and had one catch. There are tons of other players in this range who have legitimate upside.
