SharpClarke Divisional Preview: AFC West

Aug 27, 2023

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We wrap up our preseason divisional previews with a look at the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the rest of the AFC West. Another very strong division in the AFC that could produce the next Super Bowl champion and should make for some entertaining football along the way. Has the perceived gap between the Chiefs and the rest of these teams grown too wide? Let's dive in.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Narrative

The reigning Super Bowl champions silenced all doubters last year. Expectations were lower than they had ever been in the Patrick Mahomes era after losing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami. The Chargers and Broncos looked like they might compete, and the Bills were clear favorites over them to win the Super Bowl. But Mahomes proved once again that, even as the widely accepted best quarterback in the NFL, he was arguably underrated by sports media and the betting markets. He is the best player in the NFL right now, and while you could argue for someone else when adjusting for era, he is probably the best and most impactful player to ever play in the NFL. Andy Reid is a massive part of his success as well, both in developing him and creating a culture where the players can thrive, especially on offense. They lose pieces each year, stocking the cupboard with draft picks for the most part outside of prioritizing the offensive line to keep Mahomes upright. With a healthy Mahomes and a top offensive line, they truly can win any game under any circumstances.

But the question is whether the betting market odds are fair. They have been established as clear favorites to repeat as champions despite Travis Kelce entering his age 33 season (in which he turns 34 in October), a wide receiver room with more question marks than even last year's unit, and a defense currently missing its MVP to a sustained holdout with no end in sight. They also will be without defensive end Charles Omenihu for the first six weeks. The schedule-makers did the Chiefs no favors, as they play against the Dolphins in Germany, then close out the season after the bye week with a string of games against better-rested opponents. At the outset, the season looks even more challenging than last year's. For the first time in the Mahomes era, I am hesitant to fire off on pro-Chiefs bets at market prices. It took five years, but they are finally garnering the respect they deserve.

Betting Approach

I am not one to fade Mahomes and the Chiefs when it comes to winning games outright. Obviously, every team has a fair price. But we also get to choose how we allocate our bankroll, and trying to find that price where it's profitable to fade Mahomes is not a game I feel like playing. But I'm hands-off on futures this year after investing last year. There is a good chance they make another Super Bowl run and become the first back-to-back winners since Tom Brady and the Patriots in 2005, but there is too much variance for me to take +650, especially when they may not even be the best team in the NFL. Instead, I'll be looking to play week-to-week angles with this team.

Los Angeles Chargers

Narrative

Bettors (including myself) were very eager to get involved with the Chargers last year. Justin Herbert was coming off a season in which he threw for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns, and Brandon Staley had stocked his cupboard with defensive players that fit his scheme. Everything was there for the Chargers to become a serious contender. But they ultimately failed to meet these high expectations primarily due to injury. Star left tackle Rashawn Slater missed almost the entire season, so when Trey Pipkins missed time on the other side or Corey Linsley missed time at center, they were dealing with a cluster offensive line injury. On top of that, Keenan Allen was not fully healthy until around Week 11, and Mike Williams was in and out of the line-up. Without even factoring in Herbert's own rib injury and undisclosed torn labrum in his left arm, the offense was rarely even close to full strength, and cluster injuries at offensive line and receiver tend to be incredibly impactful. They also missed players on defense.

Injuries do not always normalize, and I know some people have concerns about the Chargers' medical staff, given their history of injuries. But I am firmly in the camp that injuries just happen. It's a violent game. I expect them to be healthier and have a much stronger showing this season. On top of that, they hired Kellen Moore to take this offense to the next level, and he is apparently finding an excellent match in Herbert, both physically and mentally. Brandon Staley caught a lot of flak for going hyper-conservative on fourth down in his second year and for allowing starters to play a meaningless Week 18 game that led to a key injury, but I think his players believe in him, and he has a strong culture-building attitude. All the pieces are there. Herbert's contract does not factor in heavily this year, and some key players are getting older. This feels like a crucial year for Staley. If the Chiefs do stumble on any of the obstacles in their path, the Chargers should be ready to capitalize. And even if the Chiefs do not stumble, the Chargers might be good enough to challenge them in their own right. But they have to show that on the field.

Betting Approach

I am overweight Chargers futures. I am extremely bullish on their outlook this year. They won 10 games last year despite all those injuries and losing the meaningless Week 18 game. They have the quarterback, which is the most important and consistent part. I like Staley more than most and think Moore will upgrade this offense. Granted, their schedule is not easy, and the AFC is a grind. But I expect the Chargers to rise to the challenge and have put my money where my mouth is in several markets. But as always, it's important to be measured.

Denver Broncos

Narrative

"Maybe this year," Broncos fans mutter as they make another huge splash in the off-season. This time, they have hired coach Sean Payton, who helped turn the Saints' franchise around with Drew Brees and even won a Super Bowl. But can he turn Russell Wilson around? Last year, Wilson was awful by just about any evaluation metric. Nathaniel Hackett deserves a large portion of the blame, as he seemed out of his depth as an NFL head coach and seemed unable to either inspire his players, prepare game plans, or even manage in-game decisions well. But Wilson did nothing on the field to make Hackett's job easier. He held the ball too long and threw so many passes that had no chance of being caught, especially on third down. The offensive line did not help either, and they lacked a solid run game without Javonte Williams. But unless Wilson plays materially better, this team will struggle once again.

There is some debate about when Wilson began to drop off as a player. I believe he started struggling in 2020 while he was still in Seattle, around the time when NFL defenses started focusing on taking away deep shots in the passing game. In my opinion, this is what led to the schism with Pete Carroll, who saw Wilson struggling and tried to mitigate some of that with a stronger run game. Geno Smith's relative success last year and Wilson's continued drop-off seemed to confirm this trend. One of his biggest issues last year was a lack of mobility, so his lost weight and limited preseason action demonstrate he might be more agile again, which would make a huge difference. But he'll need to be better at taking the easy intermediate throws, especially over the middle, where he has graded relatively poorly for years. If Williams is fully healthy, the re-tooled offensive line steps up, and the defense repeats its dominant performance from the early part of last year, then it could come together for the Broncos. But that's way too many "ifs" to bank on.

Betting Approach

I came into the off-season looking to once again fade the Broncos, but I couldn't pull the trigger. Last year, I underestimated the Giants because I questioned how much difference Brian Daboll could make. It turns out that a head coach can make a massive difference. I retain some skepticism about Payton, but it would be unwise to ignore the potential there, and I will be patient. Outside of an implicit fade by backing another team to win the division, I won't invest in my skepticism in season-long markets. But if they start hot against two bad teams at home in the Denver air the first two weeks, it might be time to take a heat check on the market price.

Las Vegas Raiders

Narrative

The market downturn we have seen on this Raiders team is a little shocking, considering how little actually changed from last year to this year. Yes, long-time starting quarterback Derek Carr moved on and will be replaced with the injury-prone Jimmy Garropolo. But being injury-prone is not the same thing as being injured. And while healthy, Garropolo has been the third most efficient quarterback in the NFL over the last four years, in terms of EPA/play. Yes, a huge part of that is working in Kyle Shanahan's offense with those weapons, but that's not all of it. Garropolo has been accurate, decisive, and tough in the pocket when he has time. He might be a downgrade from Carr, but not by much. And preseason sensation Aiden O'Connell might be an okay replacement if Garropolo does get hurt. We saw Jarrett Stidham perform well late last year.

They were uninspiring on defense last year despite having an excellent edge rusher in Maxx Crosby, and that seems unlikely to change. But it's also tough to perform well against so many good quarterbacks and offenses. The team is built with studs and scrubs, with stars at edge, wide receiver, and running back, but question marks everywhere else. That means they are particularly fragile to injury variance. But the market seems to be assuming they will be one of the worst teams in the league. I'm not quite sure I see it. But with questions about where this team is heading, whether head coach Josh McDaniels would be on the hot seat if they don't do well early, and a very appealing top of the draft board next year, I am not looking to invest.

Betting Approach

Another hands-off team for me in the futures market. There is too much uncertainty about direction. If forced to pick a side, I believe they'll be more competitive on the field than anticipated. I might look to capitalize on the week-to-week numbers early on if the market continues to undervalue them while healthy. That way, I can abandon ship if things go south.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Chiefs - 11.6 wins, ~62% chance to win the AFC West

Chargers - 9.7 wins, ~23% chance to win the AFC West

Broncos - 8.4 wins, ~11% chance to win the AFC West

Raiders - 6.3 wins, ~4% chance to win the AFC West

Best Bet

I remain very bullish on the Chargers this year. I would eagerly play LAC Over 9.5 Wins (-120) on DraftKings. It's a pro-Chargers angle that does not involve betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs outright, which is always a tough proposition. I do think they can beat the Chiefs and win the division, but my range of outcomes for this team skews heavily above 9 wins, creating value at -120. As always, good luck if you follow along!