Week 4 Pick Advice For NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pools (2023)
This article was written by PoolGenius, who is providing 4for4 readers with NFL survivor pick and pick'em pool advice through NFL Week 4. 4for4's own Jennifer Eakins will take over his column next week.
In this article, we first identify four of the most compelling NFL Week 4 picks that can help you get an edge on your opponents in pick'em contests. Then, we break down the pros and cons of five teams that you're probably considering for your Week 4 survivor pick.
NFL Week 4 features the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs as big favorites, again, along with a big AFC East matchup between Buffalo and Miami. As it turns out, the Bills-Dolphins game is one of a select group of Week 4 value pick opportunities in pick'em and confidence pools.
Note: Data in this post is accurate as of Wednesday, September 27th at 12:00pm ET.
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Week 4 Picks For NFL Pick'em Contests
For Week 4 pick'em pools, we’re not suggesting that you make all four picks listed below (especially the upset picks), because optimal strategy involves balancing risk with value.
For example, if you're playing in a season-long pick'em contest against only 20 or 30 other entries, you usually do better off focusing on favorites in the early going, and resisting the temptation to make a bunch of upset picks.
However, if you need to beat thousands of other entries, or if you're playing in a sizable weekly prize pool where the standings reset each week, your optimal pick strategy will instead call for more calculated gambles on riskier, unpopular picks. It all depends on your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational elements like your current place in the standings. (Our products take all that stuff into account.)
With that said, here are the Week 4 picks for game-winner-based NFL pick'em pools that provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your picks from your opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of incremental risk—or no additional risk at all.
Our Favorite Favorite
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Point Spread: -14
Win Odds: 87% (1st)
Popularity: 99% (1st)
Let’s be boring this week, it’s okay. San Francisco is the biggest favorite of the week. They are also very popular, but the kicker here is that a lot of other favorites, who have more risk, are just as popular picks in pools.
Specifically, Kansas City and Philadelphia have almost identical pick popularity to San Francisco, but are twice as likely to get upset; Dallas and the Chargers are both at over a 90% public pick rate. So in a confidence point pool, set San Francisco in that top slot, and let others push the riskier favorites up.
Value Favorites
New York Giants (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Point Spread: -1
Win Odds: 55% (13th)
Popularity: 31% (23rd)
The Seahawks are being picked like the sizable favorite here, but it’s actually the Giants who opened as the very slight point spread favorite at most books. So unless this betting line changes substantially by game time, you can make an “upset” pick against the public while getting the team with win odds over 50%. (Keep an eye on it.)
These teams aren’t as far apart as the perception, because of two reasons. First, the Giants have played a tougher defensive schedule, facing both the 49ers and Cowboys already. Second, Seattle is outperforming its yards-to-points expectation at least partly due to some luck factors like turnovers, turnovers on downs, and missed kicks by opponents. (The Giants have also underperformed in those areas, meaning regression could be on the way.)
This game should be a much more palatable defensive matchup for the Giants, who should also get some key players back from injury (though RB Saquon Barkley will probably still be out). Seattle ranks 29th in points and yards allowed so far this season.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Point Spread: -2.5
Win Odds: 55% (12th)
Popularity: 49% (17th)
The Buffalo Bills make a third straight appearance in these highlighted picks, still showing up as a slight value play in Week 4, perhaps still an after-effect of an opening week primetime loss in rough fashion to the Jets. But the Bills have been pretty dominant the past two weeks.
Of course, Miami has looked explosive on offense, scoring 70 points against Denver last week, a feat that will linger in the public's memory as Week 4 picks are made. That has the pick rate in this game pretty even despite Miami being on the road. If you trust betting odds, and these ones hold, sticking with the favored Bills is the value play.
Underdog Gamble
Houston Texans (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Point Spread: +3
Win Odds: 43% (25th)
Popularity: 20% (26th)
The young Texans put up an impressive performance at Jacksonville, winning 37-17 and leading wire to wire. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has looked like the real deal, averaging over 300 yards passing this season, and throwing four touchdown passes to no interceptions so far.
Pittsburgh escaped Las Vegas with a win, but have been inconsistent on offense. As underdogs of only a field goal, the Texans are a decent riskier value pick in weekly prize pools for Week 4, since only 20% of the public is picking the upset in this game so far.
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NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick Analysis
You shouldn't listen to any survivor pool pick advice that doesn't consider the "holy trinity" of survivor strategy data:
- Win odds (how likely a team is to win, compared to other options)
- Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
- Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Both win odds and pick popularity factor into a metric called Expected Value ("EV" for short), which assesses the risk-vs.-reward tradeoff of making a team your survivor pick.
Below, we break down the five most popular survivor picks for NFL Week 4, reviewing some of their pros and cons according to the holy trinity data and EV.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Point Spread: -14
Win Odds: 87% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 37% (1st)
Future Value: 3rd
PROS: San Francisco has the highest win odds we have seen so far this year. Even with very high pick popularity, the 49ers have the best Expected Value in Week 4, in large part because they are significantly less risky than the next-safest pick.
CONS: San Francisco has dropped to 3rd in our survivor pool future value rankings, both because this week is a high-EV spot to use them, and because Miami and Buffalo have jumped in our NFL power ratings. But they are still quite valuable to save as a future pick option, and most survivor pool entries will have used the 49ers after Week 4. So if you save the 49ers, they will have a very high EV in any future week where they are a big favorite.
Kansas City Chiefs (at New York Jets)
Point Spread: -9.5
Win Odds: 78% (2nd)
Popularity: 19% (2nd)
Future Value: 4th
PROS: The Chiefs have reasonably high win odds as an alternative to the safest pick of the week, San Francisco.
CONS: Kansas City also has fairly high future value, and a decent but not great EV in Week 4, because a high percentage of entries are concentrated on a larger favorite with high win odds.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Commanders)
Point Spread: -8
Win Odds: 76% (3rd)
Popularity: 18% (3rd)
Future Value: 9th
PROS: The Eagles also have reasonably high win odds, though the safety gap with San Francisco is widening now. But Philadelphia also has less future value than other top options in Week 4, particularly in smaller survivor pools which likely will end before late-season matchups such as Week 16 and 17 come into play.
CONS: Philadelphia's EV in Week 4 is modest, and picking them gives you almost twice the chance to get eliminated as picking San Francisco does.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. New England Patriots)
Point Spread: -6.5
Win Odds: 67% (4th)
Popularity: 6% (4th)
Future Value: 5th
PROS: The Cowboys are a less popular Week 4 survivor pick than the top three most common picks, and by a pretty big margin. So you're getting almost a touchdown favorite at relatively low pick popularity.
CONS: Dallas is a much riskier pick than other options this week, and as a result, has relatively low EV despite low pick popularity. The Cowboys also have high future value in survivor pools through the middle part of the 2023 season, with several weeks where they still project to be one of the biggest favorites.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Point Spread: -5.5
Win Odds: 64% (5th)
Popularity: 5% (5th)
Future Value: 10th
PROS: The Chargers have a similar profile to the Cowboys, with low pick popularity, but also lower future value than the other top options this week (including Dallas).
CONS: The Chargers come with a bit higher risk than Dallas, plus some uncertainty regarding their win odds until we get definitive word on Las Vegas QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s status.
Get Week 4 Picks For Your NFL Pools
Every football pool demands a customized approach to pick strategy. In survivor pools, for example, should you lean more toward the safest Week 4 pick (San Francisco) or try to save the top teams and go with a pick like the Chargers? In pick'em contests, is it wise to take a calculated gamble by picking the Texans to upset the Steelers?
The answer is "it depends," because factors like your pool's size, rules, and prize structure all play a role in determining your optimal picks. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answers, and despite the best of intentions, most football pool players don't have the will, the skill, or the time to compete at that level.
That's why PoolGenius built the NFL Survivor Picks and Football Pick'em Picks products. In less than a minute, they generate customized picks tailored specifically for your pool, all based on the objective data required to play like a pro. Use them at the links below (including via our free trial offer), and good luck in your survivor and pick'em pools in Week 4!
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