Week 5 NFL Player Props: Vivid Picks

Football season is in full swing right now. Jonathan Taylor looks primed to return, the Chicago Bears are still the worst team in the league, and the Buffalo Bills are among the best. All is seemingly right in the world. For those of you who haven’t dabbled in Vivid Picks yet, I would highly recommend it. For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasoning why, and what I would play each leg to.

If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

Week 5 NFL Vivid Picks Plays

David Montgomery over 72.5 Rushing Yards

Montgomery came back from injury last Thursday and racked up a career-high 32 carries that he turned into 121 yards. Now he draws the Panthers as 11-point favorites. Carolina is among the worst at defending the run in the league. CAR run D is dead last in EPA, DVOA, and 2nd worst in success rate. They are allowing 4.94 yards per carry to opposing running backs. With positive game script and a great matchup, Montgomery could easily approach 20 carries and 100 yards again.

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Desmond Ridder under 183.5 passing yards

Ridder has had a rocky start to the season, and there are already calls for him to be benched for Heinicke. That likely doesn't happen here, but he does have a sneaky tough matchup against the Houston Texans. The Texans are a massive run funnel, ranking 7th in pass DVOA and 28th in run DVOA. They have similar splits in EPA. They also rank 10th in explosive pass rate allowed, averaging just 6.53 yards per attempt allowed. Just one QB has cleared 175 yards against the Texans so far, and that was Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, who allowed a ton of quick touchdowns and faced a massive negative game script.

The Falcons will be able to stay on schedule here with the running game, and when they do pass, it won't be easy. Play to 180.

Courtland Sutton under 46.5 receiving yards

Sutton is 2-2 to this number this season, and now he plays the Jets, who have the best duo of outside cornerbacks in the league in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Sutton plays nearly 80% of his snaps on the outside and will have by far the toughest matchup of the entire Broncos receiving corps. On top of this, the Broncos have been pushed in basically every game this season outside of Week 1 (32 yards on 4 receptions in a soft matchup).

I understand that everyone is ready to forgive Zach Wilson for his sins of atrocious quarterbacking after just one good game, but I'm certainly not. The Broncos defense is playing terribly, but the reality is the Jets are going to run the ball, a lot. This likely won't be the massive shootout we have seen in weeks past. As we remember with our previous Sutton under, he only beat us against the Commanders with them playing prevent the last minute of the game.

TJ Hockenson over 54.5 receiving yards

The Vikings draw the Chiefs this week and are expected to throw a ton. The Chiefs are allowing an 84% catch rate and 8.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends so far this season, two of the worst marks in the league.

D’Andre Swift over 66.5 rushing yards

The Rams lead the league in lightbox rate at 74% and two-high shell rate at 77%. Against light boxes, the Eagles' running game has averaged 4.72 yards per carry and have been stuffed at the lowest rate in the league. They are averaging 2.21 yards before contact per attempt, which is one of the best in the league as well. Swift has taken over as the lead back and has been crushing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit 100+ rushing yards here.

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