NBA Player Prop Bets: Porzingis is on Tap
After an off day for all 30 NBA teams, the NBA is back today with a whopping 14 games. Whether it was for election day, or the avoidance of the back-to-back games leading up to the In-Season Tournament on Friday, we are left with an overload of games today. This slate is bound to have a massive amount of plays and opportunities for us to find our edge.
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November 8th NBA Player Prop Bets
One of the biggest edges in sports betting is news. It is critical to follow the news up to tip off with lots of potential opportunities opening up. Here are a few plays I am looking at for tonight. Join the Discord for the most up-to-date information as the news unfolds.
Kristaps Porzingis (BOS) Over 16.5 Points (-115 Bet365)
Kristaps Porzingis last season with the Washington Wizards had a higher usage rate (from 27.8% down to 21.3%), however, with the Boston Celtics, he is much more efficient. Porzingis has increased his two-point field goal percentage from 55.9% to 64.1% while increasing his three-point percentage from 55.9% to 64.1%. Even looking at his true shooting, which is a metric better used to model his shooting percentage, taking into account free throws and three-point shooting, has increased from 62.2% up to 68% this season.
Improving on those metrics has led Porzingis to go over this line in four of six games this season. The two games he missed this line were blowouts where he only played 24 and 27 minutes. In the other four games where they were competitive, Porzingis played a minimum of 30 minutes. I do not expect this game versus the Philadelphia 76ers to be a blowout. My projections here for Porzingis are 32 mins and 20.4 points.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Scottie Barnes (TOR) Over 20.5 Points (-120 Bet365)
Scottie Barnes continues to increase his usage and scoring. Books are adjusting, but not fast enough. Barnes is averaging 35.1 minutes per game, and 22.6 points per game. Barnes has been one of my favorite plays all season, and I see no reason to stop hitting Barnes here.
Underneath the excitement, there's a good amount of useful data that indicates this is not a fluke. Barnes has increased his usage from 20.6 to 25.9 from last season to this season with a healthy Toronto Raptors team. This increase is mainly from the void that Fred VanVleet left behind, but also Barnes' development. His True Shooting has gone from 52.4% up to 61.2%. His three-point percentages and his two-point percentages have also all gone up.
Risk 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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