2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 14
The breakout model returns for Week 14 after maybe its best week of all time, with several huge predicted hits in Week 13. This week, as we shift gears slightly away from a season-long focus on and more towards DFS, we’ll drift a bit from the typical “buy low” and “sell high” arguments from earlier in the season, and instead focus on the reasons players’ scoring may increase (or decrease) based on opportunity value, past efficiency, and upcoming matchups. Let’s dig into the Week 14 model to uncover key insights for this ever-important week in the fantasy season.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model to use machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Model Predicted Breakouts - Week 13
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