Week 15 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 14, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Chargers at Raiders

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 15 Thursday Night Football, featuring a clash between AFC West bottom dwellers in the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams enter this game at 5-8 with their playoff hopes all but dashed. It's made even worse by the myriad injuries. With Justin Herbert (out for the season), Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, and possibly Davante Adams all set to miss this contest, the over/under for the game is set at an abysmal 34, reflecting the immense impact these absences have on quarterback play and the game’s overall outcome. Let’s dig into some key DFS strategies for this messy single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Chargers (+3, 15.5) @ Raiders (-3, 18.5); Over/Under 34

The Chargers, a traditionally high-octane offense with Herbert, are in uncharted waters for the rest of the season. Moving from Herbert to Easton Stick throws a gigantic wrench into the Chargers’ typical offensive strategy. Before Week 14, the Chargers led the NFL with 37.1 pass plays per game and showcased a significantly faster-than-average pace. However, with Stick at the helm, this dynamic is likely to change. The Chargers currently average 2.4 offensive touchdowns per game, ninth in the NFL. Expect that number to hover around one per game—which would be the league's lowest—for the rest of the season.

On the opposite side, the Raiders' offense, guided by quarterback Aidan O’Connell, exhibits its own set of inefficiencies. Despite a bottom-seven average score differential, the Raiders maintain a much slower pace than the league average and rank 23rd in pass plays per game. Their approach to the game doesn’t significantly alter whether behind or ahead, and they’re outside the top 25 in both deep passes and red zone pass attempts on a per-game basis. They average 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game, tied for the fifth-lowest in the NFL. The Raiders’ offensive rhythm could see adjustments (for the better) if Jimmy Garoppolo steps in for O’Connell, who appears to be on a short leash in this contest.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Drafted in 2018 out of North Dakota State University, Easton Stick is making his first pro start, with Week 14 marking his first game with 20 pass attempts in the NFL. He averaged a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt on 214 air yards in that limited action. However, he failed to score a touchdown and did not utilize his collegiate rushing ability at all, where he averaged 45 rush yards per game in his final year. The lack of experience and completely unknown track record places him as 4for4’s second-lowest projected starting quarterback of the week.

Aidan O’Connell, making just his seventh career start, finds himself at the lower end of quarterback efficiency metrics across the board. He’s 31st in adjusted yards per attempt, and sits outside the top 30 in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and true drive success rate, highlighting a consistent inability to turn drives into scores. His completion percentage versus expectation barely keeps him inside the top 40 starting quarterbacks this season. Adding minimal value with his legs, O’Connell averages less than two rush yards per game and has contributed a single rushing score. His touchdowns-per-pass attempt rate of 4.9% sits well below the league average. There’s a distinct possibility he doesn’t make it through the game as the starter.