Week 15 Saturday Single-Game NFL DFS: Broncos and Lions Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 15, 2023

Saturday Single-Game DFS: Broncos at Lions

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 15 Showdown snapshot for the final game of our Week 15 Saturday triple-header, an intriguing interconference matchup between the red-hot Broncos and the NFC’s third-seed Detroit Lions. The Broncos, winners of six of their last seven, enter on a complete tear, playing some of the best defense in the NFL during the second half. Meanwhile, the Lions have lost two very winnable matchups in their last three, and appear to be heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time, but could solidify their spot in the NFL’s upper echelon with a statement win this Saturday. Let’s go over the strategies and top plays for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

Broncos (+5, 21.5) @ Lions (-5, 26.5); Over/Under 48

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}