Week 16 Monday Single-Game NFL DFS: Giants and Eagles Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 24, 2023

Monday Single-Game DFS: Giants at Eagles

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the second game of the 2023 Christmas day slate, featuring a classic NFC East battle between the Giants and Eagles. Both teams enter the slate in a rut—the Eagles are losers of three in a row, looking identity-less on offense and extremely susceptible in the secondary. The Giants are enjoying Tommy DeVito’s middling-to-decent run at quarterback, but remain firmly in the competition for a top-five pick in the 2024 draft. Let’s break down the key players and top strategies to help DFS players take down this exciting single-game slate.

Game Environment

Giants (16.5) @ Eagles (26.5); Over/Under 43

This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.

Quarterback Analysis

While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.