Week 17 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 28, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Jets at Browns

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 17 showdown breakdown for Thursday Night Football, as the New York Jets fly into Cleveland to face the Browns in a game with significant playoff implications for the home team. The Browns, at 10-5, can clinch a postseason berth with a victory. Meanwhile, the Jets, holding a 6-9 record, would have a top-10 draft pick if the season ended today, but are showing a ton of fight to close out the season. Let's look at the key storylines, top plays, and roster-building strategies to help take down this single-game DFS slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Jets (14.25) @ Browns (21.75); Over/Under 36

The Jets have morphed into a surprisingly pass-heavy team with Trevor Siemian's under center. Since Week 13, only three teams have exceeded the Jets in passing frequency during neutral game scripts, and their pace of play has accelerated to the second-fastest in the league. However, despite this aggressive approach, the Jets’ offense lags in touchdown production, still anchored in the bottom third even after last week's win in Washington. The stellar performance of their defense is a silver lining but is also preventing games from escalating into high-scoring affairs that the offense's pace and passing strategy would theoretically allow. Siemian's low Average Depth of Target (ADOT) and preference for check-downs, as evidenced by Breece Hall's 16 targets in Week 16, will continue to define the team's offensive strategy.

With Joe Flacco at the helm, the Browns have also embraced an uncharacteristically pass-heavy offense. Flacco's four-week tenure under center has seen the team flirt with the league's highest pass rate in neutral scenarios, climbing to third in overall pass plays per game. Their tempo has been slightly above average, and unlike the Jets, Flacco and Co. are averaging 3.7 touchdowns per game over their last three outings—the second-best in the NFL. This transformation has been accompanied by risks, with Flacco's ranking among the league worst in "danger play" rate as charted by PlayerProfiler, which could wind up being a critical factor against the Jets' top-rated secondary.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Siemian's brief tenure as the Jets' quarterback has been characterized by inefficiency, with his advanced key metrics languishing at the lower end of the league. His completion percentage versus expectation (CPOE) ranks outside the top 25. More concerning is his position outside the top 40 in true drive success rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game, reflecting struggles in sustaining drives and contributing positively to the team's scoring chances. Averaging a meager 5.1 yards per attempt, Siemian's play has been fairly conservative, with minimal risk-taking—or so he's intended. His interception rate, averaging one per game, just adds to the Jets offensive woes. With negligible rushing contributions (averaging 1.7 carries per game), Siemian's fantasy output has been capped for years. He hasn't surpassed 11 points in a game since Week 10 of the 2021 season.

As explored above, Flacco's stint as the Browns' quarterback has injected an unexpected dynamic into their traditionally conservative offense. His willingness to air the ball out is evident, with an average of over 8.0 yards per attempt in recent starts. Despite this aggressive approach, his efficiency metrics paint a slightly less rosy picture. Flacco sits just above Siemian in CPOE, indicating a lackluster accuracy compared to league standards. His true drive success rate aligns with the NFL average, while his EPA per game situates him among less illustrious company like Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. The risk inherent in Flacco's play style could lead the Browns to a multi-score victory or be their downfall in a surprise upset loss.