Week 18 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 17 marked our first negative week of the last five. Even in a down week, there were very real paths towards being positive. We bet Jared Goff’s under on his passing yards with the handicap revolving around Detroit’s success on the ground. Despite the handicap playing out almost perfectly, we found a way to lose. He had just a little over 100 yards with a few minutes left in the third quarter before a 70-yard pass to Jameson Williams. He then continued to not do a whole lot, but with multiple possessions at the end of the game, he added another 100 yards in attempts to furiously come back.
Nico Collins hit the over on his regular prop, but with the Texans thoroughly dominating the Titans, Stroud barely threw the ball in the second half, and he finished with 80 yards. Any pushback and Collins easily crushes another 30-40 yards to hit some alts.
Despite a marginally down week, we will be cashing some futures pretty soon, and it’s a new year. I don’t fully believe in New Year's resolutions, but I truly do want to start being more aggressive on Twitter, calling out information and or practices that are slimy, useless, and or deceiving to bettors. I’m sure some of you saw my post calling out a “handicapper” posting “incentive bets” before lines were even posted. I still think posting “bets” without a price or it even being available to bet is fairly irresponsible. In hindsight, someone was probably always going to post that stuff way too early in today’s iteration of social media, where some people only care about engagement. It’s sad because incentive bets used to be an absolute gold mine, but it's just the unfortunate reality. Anyways, back to our regularly scheduled programming!
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Week 18 Player Prop Bets
Nico Collins over 73.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
We released this in our discord at 71.5 at FD, but it is playable up to 75.
We bet Nico's over last week and are going back to the well again in a must-win game against the Colts. He will have minimal to no target competition here with Tank Dell out, while both Robert Woods and Noah Brown are not looking good to play here as well.
On top of his nearly 30% target per route run rate without Tank Dell this season, Nico will benefit from the Colts playing the highest rate of Cover-3 in the league. Nico is averaging over 3 yards per route run this season (top-10 in the league), and when these teams met last, Nico went for 146 yards on 7 receptions. I get that this number seems high, but everything is pointing towards another big game for Nico.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit (released at 71.5, -114)
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