Calvin Ridley's Fantasy Football Outlook with the Tennessee Titans
What we thought was a two-team race for Calvin Ridley between staying with the Jaguars and joining the New England Patriots, shockingly ended in a monster four-year, $92 million deal with $50 million guaranteed to play for the Tennesee Titans. The addition of Ridley should provide a nice boost for sophomore QB Will Levis and this Titan offense.
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Calvin Ridley’s Return to Football
As a member of the Falcons from 2018-2021, Ridley posted just one 1,000-yard season and averaged 12.6 half-PPR points per game with one fantasy WR1, one WR2, and two WR3 finishes in that statistical category. After being suspended for the entire 2022 season due to gambling, the wideout returned in 2023 as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Ridley had a sizable role for the Jags, leading the WR room in targets (136) which he turned into 76 catches for 1,016 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He saw 1,771 air yards on a 21% target share and a 36% air yards share with a hearty 22% red zone share, as he was third among WRs in targets from inside the 20-yard line.
The 29-year-old ended the 2023 season as the WR26 in half-PPR points per game which was considered a disappointment based on draft capital spent on the wideout (WR14). However, a 1,000-yard season with eight scores is still impressive for a player who was watching from his couch for a full year even if he didn’t live up to the fantasy community’s escalated expectations.
How Calvin Ridley Fits in the Tennessee Offense
The Titans operated without a solid WR2 last season with DeAndre Hopkins seeing a 25% target share, and 114 air yards per contest with a 42% air yards share. The addition of Ridley could help both WRs as long as Will Levis progresses as a passer in 2024. The Titans have leaned run-heavy in the past and posted the fourth-fewest passing yards in the NFL last season, but that should change with new head coach Brian Callahan in town who oversaw a highly-potent passing game as the OC for the Bengals from 2019-2023.
There’s room for both Ridley and Hopkins to produce for fantasy purposes, but the big losers here are Treylon Burks and possibly TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, who may get phased out in the Callahan offense.
The Fantasy Outlook for Ridley and Company
Ridley landed with a big-armed QB in Levis who doesn’t run. It’s unclear how the targets will shake out between him and Hopkins, but there should be plenty of balls to go around in this new-look offense with pass-happier Callahan at the helm. If the Titans don’t draft a top-tier WR in April, a concentrated attack between these two is good for fantasy purposes.
Right now Ridley is 4for4’s WR32 in the early rankings, with Hopkins at WR36. Underdog drafters are less bullish on both wideouts, with Ridley being drafted as the WR35 in spot 5.10 with Hopkins leaving boards as the WR41 at 6.10. With recency bias creating a depressed ADP for Ridley, I’m buying the dip as a fantasy WR3. Hopkins, while 31-years-old should still produce in the WR3 realm and boasts a WR4 pricetag early on this offseason.
Sadly, RIP Treylon Burks who is nothing more than a final-round stab in best ball formats and undraftable in redraft leagues.
Bottom Line
- Calvin Ridley is coming off a disappointing season in fantasy football terms, as he ended 12 positional spots from where he was drafted in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis (WR24).
- He joins DeAndre Hopkins in what will likely be a concentrated passing attack under new HC Brian Callahan who orchestrated a high-octane Bengals air offense as OC from 2019-2023.
- Ridley is currently WR32 in 4for4’s early rankings with an Underdog ADP of WR35 (5.10) and has the potential to outproduce if big-armed QB Will Levis takes a step forward in 2024.
- Hopkins is also a fantasy WR3 in 4for4’s rankings but is being drafted as a WR4 in early Underdog drafts as WR41 (6.10). Treylon Burks is downgraded to a final-round dart for best ball and non-draftable in seasonal formats.
